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Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals VS Cleveland Guardians 2025-06-27

Best Same-Game Parlay: Guardians Cover +1.5 Runs & Over 8.5 Total Runs
Bookmaker: BetUS (Best Odds)
Legs:
1. Cleveland Guardians +1.5 Runs @ 1.67
2. Over 8.5 Total Runs @ 1.87
Total Implied Payout: 3.13 (213% Profit)

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### Why This Parlay?
1. Guardians +1.5 Spread:
- Luis Ortiz (4.30 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (3.72 ERA) gives Cleveland a favorable matchup.
- Guardians are 21-26 as underdogs this season but have a 3.98 team ERA, matching the Cardinals’ 3.98.
- The +1.5 spread is manageable if Ortiz limits damage and the offense scores 4+ runs.

2. Over 8.5 Runs:
- Model projects 8.5 total runs, with Ortiz’s 4.30 ERA and the Cardinals’ 3.98 team ERA suggesting volatility.
- Both teams rank in the top 25 in MLB for home runs (79 HRs for Guardians, 81 for Cardinals), favoring high-scoring games.

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### Key Stats & Context
- Ortiz’s Struggles: 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP (league-average is ~1.30) increase run-scoring odds.
- Guardians’ Offense: 4th in MLB in OBP (.335) and 10th in slugging (.432).
- Cardinals’ Defense: 25th in MLB in team ERA (3.98), worst in NL.

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### Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Guardians +1.5 | Over 8.5 | Combined Payout |
|------------------|----------------|----------|------------------|
| BetUS | 1.67 | 1.87 | 3.13 |
| FanDuel | 1.62 | 1.91 | 3.09 |
| DraftKings | 1.64 | 1.86 | 3.04 |

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### Rationale
- Value in Underdog Spread: Guardians are +1.5 underdogs, but Ortiz’s poor ERA and the Cardinals’ leaky defense make this a viable play.
- High-Scoring Potential: With both teams hitting 81+ HRs and Ortiz’s shaky ERA, the over is a safer bet than the under.

Final Verdict: This parlay balances risk and reward, leveraging Ortiz’s struggles and the teams’ power-hitting tendencies. Go with BetUS for the best odds.

Created: June 27, 2025, 6:59 p.m. GMT