Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-07-02

Best Same Game Parlay: Pirates +1.5 & Over 7.5 Runs
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Odds: +199 (Combined odds of 2.99)

Why This Parlay?
1. Pirates +1.5 Spread (1.67):
- The Pirates are getting 1.5 runs, a generous line given their recent offensive surge (7+ runs in four straight games).
- Starter Paul Skenes has a 2.12 ERA, but his last start was his worst of the season, suggesting regression to the mean is likely.

Over 7.5 Runs (1.79):
- The Pirates’ offense is red-hot, and the Cardinals’ starter (Andre Pallante, 4.43 ERA) is vulnerable.
- High-scoring games are probable with both teams’ lineups (Pirates: 2nd-lowest slugging % in MLB vs. Cardinals: 11th in team OPS).

Implied Probability & Value:
- Combined implied probability: ~33.4% (1 / 2.99).
- Given the Pirates’ offensive momentum and Pallante’s inconsistency, the actual probability of both outcomes exceeds the bookmaker’s implied chance.

Final Verdict:
This parlay balances risk and reward, leveraging the Pirates’ spread value and the Over’s likelihood. The +199 payout offers strong returns for a plausible outcome.

Avoid:
- Pirates Moneyline + Over 8.0 (lower probability, higher risk).
- Cardinals -1.5 & Under (unlikely with both teams’ offensive trends).

Play Smart:
Stick to DraftKings for this parlay to ensure same-bookmaker compliance. The Pirates’ +1.5 cover and Over 7.5 are the most logical, profitable combo.

Created: July 1, 2025, 10:03 p.m. GMT