Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals VS San Francisco Giants 2025-09-22

Cardinals vs. Giants: A Parlay of Perils and Puns
Where pitching meets poetry, and odds meet absurdity.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Pitchers
Let’s start with the starters: Justin Verlander (Giants) and Michael McGreevy (Cardinals). Verlander, the 39-year-old “old-timer” with a 3.75 ERA, is seeking redemption after a 3-10 record that makes him baseball’s version of a guy who almost wins the office Super Bowl pool every year. His recent seven-inning shutout against the Diamondbacks? A fleeting moment of glory in a season that’s felt like a long, hot bath for his ERA.

McGreevy, meanwhile, is the 26-year-old “up-and-comer” with a 7-3 record and a 4.08 ERA. He’s like the kid in gym class who’s just good enough to make the team but not so good that he’ll steal your lunch money. Both pitchers aim for quality starts, but Verlander’s track record of five-inning outings (6-game streak!) gives him a slight edge—though his Giants’ offense averages a pedestrian 4.3 runs per game. The Cardinals? Same 4.3 runs, but with a .245 batting average (vs. the Giants’ .234) and a leadoff man, Brendan Donovan, who’s faster than your Wi-Fi on a bad day.

Implied Probabilities:
- Giants (-148): ~59.7% chance to win (148 / (148 + 100)).
- Cardinals (+125): ~44.4% chance to win (100 / (125 + 100)).
- Total runs line: 7.5. Over/under odds hover around 51-53%, suggesting a “cozy, low-scoring affair” (read: boring).

Digesting the News: Injuries, Rivalries, and Ridiculousness
The Giants are coming off a loss to the Dodgers, which is like a B+ student crying over a C- in a class they didn’t study for. Their 87-41 record as favorites this season? A damning indictment of their “chokers with class” reputation. The Cardinals, though, have won 42 of 88 games as underdogs—proof that baseball, like life, rewards those who expect nothing.

Key player news? J.D. Devers (Giants) leads the team with 32 HRs, which is impressive until you realize he’s hit 10 of them against the Cardinals this season. Meanwhile, Alec Burleson (.289 BA) is the Cardinals’ golden boy, though he’s yet to face Verlander, who’s as welcoming as a porcupine at a hugging party.

The Humorous Spin: Because Baseball Needs More Laughs
- Verlander’s ERA: 3.75. That’s the exact amount of patience you have during a 3-hour traffic jam.
- McGreevy’s K/9: 5.5. Enough to make a bartender blush.
- Giants’ HRs: 164. They hit more home runs than a Tesla factory in a week.
- Cardinals’ defense: Porous enough to let a toddler through a picket fence.

The Parlay Play: Giants Win + Over 7.5 Runs
Here’s the math:
- Giants’ implied win probability: ~60%.
- Over 7.5 runs: ~53% (based on combined team averages and total line).
- Combined implied probability: ~31.6% (60% * 53%).
- Best combined odds: Giants -148 + Over 7.5 (-110) = ~+280 (if available).

Why it works:
1. Verlander’s recent form: That seven-inning shutout? A rare bright spot in a season of mediocrity. He’ll likely pitch deep, but the Cardinals’ .245 BA and Burleson’s speed could poke holes in his armor.
2. Giants’ HR power: 164 HRs vs. the Cardinals’ 143. If Devers connects, it’s a one-man parade.
3. The “over”: Both teams average 8.6 strikeouts per game, but that’s just a fancy way of saying “mistakes happen.” With McGreevy’s 4.08 ERA and Verlander’s leaky run support (Giants average 4.3 R/G), this game could explode like a piñata at a party.

Final Prediction: Giants Win, 5-4, in a Thriller
The Giants scratch out a win behind Verlander’s seven innings and Devers’ two-RBI single. The Cardinals’ offense, led by Burleson’s speed and Donovan’s “I’ll bunt this into the stratosphere” heroics, keeps it close. The final score? A 5-4 nailbiter that makes you question why you’re watching instead of sleeping.

Parlay Pick: Giants -148 to win AND Over 7.5 runs (-110). Profit or perish, folks.

Created: Sept. 23, 2025, midnight GMT