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Parlay: Steven Hill VS Leon Hill 2025-07-12

MMA Matchup Analysis: Leon Hill vs. Steven Hill
"When in doubt, bet the underdog—but only if they’re not named Steven Hill."

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1. Key Statistics & Context
- Leon Hill (Favorite): Decimal odds of 1.53 (implied probability: 65.36%).
- Steven Hill (Underdog): Decimal odds of 2.65 (implied probability: 37.74%).
- Totals Market: Over/Under 1.5 rounds (Over: 1.97, Under: 1.79).

Historical Context:
- MMA fights have a 35% underdog win rate (per your framework).
- Fights often end early: ~40–50% of MMA bouts conclude in the first round.

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2. Injuries/Updates
No injuries or updates reported for either fighter. The fight is a clean slate, so we rely purely on odds and historical trends.

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3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations

Moneyline Adjustments
- Leon Hill (Favorite):
- Implied probability: 65.36%.
- Adjusted probability: (65.36% + 65%) / 2 = 65.18% (favorite win rate = 65%).
- EV: Slightly negative (65.18% < 65.36%).

• Steven Hill (Underdog):
  - Implied probability: 37.74%.
  - Adjusted probability: (37.74% + 35%) / 2 = 36.37%.
  - EV: Negative (36.37% < 37.74%).

Totals Market Adjustments
- Over 1.5 Rounds: Implied 50.76%.
- Historical Over rate in MMA: ~40–50%.
- EV: Neutral to slightly negative.

• Under 1.5 Rounds: Implied 55.87%.
  - Historical Under rate: ~50–60%.
  - EV: Neutral (adjusted probability ≈ 55%).

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4. Best Same-Game Parlay
Recommendation: Leon Hill (-30) + Under 1.5 Rounds (1.79)
- Combined Odds: 1.53 * 1.79 ≈ 2.74 (implied probability: 36.5%).
- Adjusted Probability:
- Leon Hill: 65.18%.
- Under 1.5 Rounds: 55% (estimated from historical trends).
- Combined: 65.18% * 55% ≈ 35.8%.

EV Analysis:
- The adjusted probability (35.8%) is slightly lower than the implied (36.5%), making this a neutral-to-slightly-negative EV parlay. However, it’s the least bad option given the data.

Why This Works:
- MMA fights often end early, and Leon Hill’s dominance in the odds suggests a high likelihood of a first-round finish.
- The Under (fight ends in first round) is priced at 55.87%, but historical trends suggest it’s undervalued (~50–60% true probability).

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Final Verdict
"Bet the parlay only if you’re a masochist who enjoys tightropes."

• Leon Hill to Win + Under 1.5 Rounds is the best same-game parlay, but EV is marginal.
  - If forced to choose a single bet, Leon Hill (-30) is a safe, low-juice play with near-neutral EV.
  - Avoid Steven Hill (+265) unless you’re a fan of statistical outliers.

Final EV Summary:
- Leon Hill: EV ≈ -0.18%.
- Under 1.5 Rounds: EV ≈ +0.0%.
- Parlay: EV ≈ -0.7%.

"In MMA, the only thing more predictable than a knockout is the bookmakers’ ability to milk your wallet."

Created: July 12, 2025, 8:52 p.m. GMT