Parlay: Tampa Bay Rays VS Boston Red Sox 2025-07-13
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Same-Game Parlay Breakdown
July 13, 2025 | 1:35 PM ET | MLB Network/NESN
1. Key Statistics & Context
- Boston Red Sox (51-45):
- Offense: 4th in MLB (5.1 R/G), led by Trevor Story and Jarren Duran.
- Pitching: 3.87 ERA, with Brayan Bello (4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) on the mound.
- Injuries: Zack Kelly (SP) and Luis Guerrero (RP) sidelined; Trevor Story’s availability is uncertain.
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- Tampa Bay Rays (50-45):
- Underdog Magic: 46.7% win rate as underdogs, defying the 41% MLB underdog norm.
- Pitching: Ryan Pepiot (4.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) faces a potent Red Sox lineup.
- Injuries: Brandon Lowe (OF) and Zack Kelly (SP) out; Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero are key offensive threats.
- Head-to-Head: The Rays have won 5 of their last 8 meetings against Boston, including a 4-1 run-line cover in their most recent clash.
2. Odds Breakdown & Implied Probabilities
Moneyline:
- Boston Red Sox (-181): Implied probability = 1 / 1.81 ≈ 55.25%
- Tampa Bay Rays (+102): Implied probability = 100 / (102 + 100) ≈ 49.5%
Run Line:
- Boston -1.5 (+136): Implied probability = 100 / (136 + 100) ≈ 42.37%
- Tampa +1.5 (-136): Implied probability = 136 / (136 + 100) ≈ 57.63%
Totals:
- Over 9.0 (-105): Implied probability = 1 / 1.95 ≈ 51.28%
- Under 9.0 (+105): Implied probability = 1 / 2.05 ≈ 48.78%
3. EV Calculations & Adjusted Probabilities
Red Sox Moneyline (Favorite):
- Favorite Win Rate (MLB): 59% (100% - 41% underdog rate).
- Adjusted Probability: (55.25% + 59%) / 2 = 57.13%
- EV: 57.13% > 55.25% → +EV
Tampa +1.5 Run Line (Underdog):
- Underdog Win Rate (MLB): 41%.
- Adjusted Probability: (57.63% + 41%) / 2 = 49.32%
- EV: 49.32% < 57.63% → -EV
Boston -1.5 Run Line (Favorite):
- Adjusted Probability: (42.37% + 59%) / 2 = 50.68%
- EV: 50.68% > 42.37% → +EV
Over 9.0 Runs:
- Model Projection: 9.9 runs (SportsLine).
- Implied Probability: 51.28%.
- EV: Model suggests Over is undervalued → +EV
4. Best Same-Game Parlay
Leg 1: Boston Red Sox -1.5 Run Line (+136)
- Why? Adjusted probability (50.68%) > Implied (42.37%). Bello vs. Pepiot favors Boston’s offense, and Tampa’s injury-riddled bullpen (Lowe, Guerrero out) raises Boston’s margin for error.
Leg 2: Over 9.0 Runs (-105)
- Why? SportsLine’s 9.9-run projection vs. 9.0 total implies Over is undervalued. Boston’s 5.1 R/G attack and Tampa’s 4.9 R/G offense suggest a high-scoring clash.
Parlay Odds:
- Decimal Odds: 2.36 (Red Sox -1.5) × 1.91 (Over) = 4.51
- Implied Probability: 1 / 4.51 ≈ 22.17%
- Estimated True Probability: 50.68% (Red Sox cover) × 55% (Over) = 27.87%
- EV: 27.87% > 22.17% → Strong +EV
5. Final Verdict
Play the Boston Red Sox -1.5 Run Line & Over 9.0 Runs Parlay at 4.51 Odds
- Rationale: Boston’s adjusted probability to cover the run line (50.68%) and the model-driven Over value (55% implied) create a correlated, high-conviction parlay. The Rays’ injury woes and Boston’s explosive offense tilt the scales toward a high-scoring Red Sox win.
Avoid: Tampa Bay moneyline (-EV) or Under 9.0 (-EV).
“The Red Sox aren’t just favorites—they’re favorites with a plan. And that plan involves scoring runs, preferably more than nine.” — The SportsLine Oracle
Created: July 13, 2025, 7:33 a.m. GMT