Parlay: Tennessee Volunteers VS Mississippi State Bulldogs 2025-09-27

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: A Same-Game Parlay Breakdown
Where Injuries Meet Implied Probabilities in a Southern Showdown

1. Parse the Odds: A Math Class You Didn’t Ask For
Let’s start with the numbers, because even if you’re not a math whiz, the bookmakers are definitely not. Tennessee (-7.5) is the heavy favorite on the spread, with moneyline odds hovering around +135 to +136 (implied probability: ~59% to 60%). Mississippi State (+7.5) is a long shot at +320 to +345 (implied probability: ~29% to 30%). The total is locked at 63.5 points, with even money on over/under.

But here’s the rub: Tennessee is missing eight players, including two running backs, a tight end, and defensive linemen. Mississippi State isn’t exactly fielding a full squad either—three absences on offense and defense—but their injuries are fewer and less impactful. The Volunteers, meanwhile, look like a Jenga tower after someone yanked out the corner pieces.

Key stat to note: Tennessee’s offense is led by Peyton Lewis (81 rushing yards vs. UAB) and Joey Aguilar (3 TDs), but their defense is missing three defensive backs and two defensive linemen. Mississippi State’s offense, featuring Fluff Bothwell (101 rushing yards) and Davon Booth (2 TDs), might exploit this.

2. Digest the News: Injuries, Injuries, Injuries
Tennessee’s injury report reads like a grocery list for a disaster movie:
- Rickey Gibson III and Jermod McCoy (DBs) are out, which is bad news for containing Mississippi State’s explosive offense.
- Daevin Hobbs and Mariyon Dye (DL) are missing, meaning the Bulldogs’ offensive line could have a field day.
- Radarious Jackson (WR) and Daune Morris (RB) are gone, which complicates Tennessee’s special teams and depth.

Mississippi State isn’t exactly pristine, but they’re the definition of “less broken”:
- Derion Gullette (LB) and Will Whitson (DL) are out, but their defense still has enough glue to hold together.
- Blake Steen (OL) is missing, but Fluff Bothwell’s name alone (“Fluff”?) gives us confidence he’ll bulldoze through any deficit.

3. Humorous Spin: Football, Injuries, and a Side of Absurdity
Tennessee’s roster is like a IKEA shelf—missing screws, wobbly, and prone to collapse if someone so much as looks at it wrong. Their defense? A sieve that’s been punctured by a blowtorch. Mississippi State’s offense, meanwhile, is a well-oiled circus act, with Fluff Bothwell as the human cannonball who’s definitely not tripping over his own feet (…we hope).

The spread (-7.5 for Tennessee) feels like asking a one-legged man to race a cheetah. But hey, the Volunteers did beat UAB 56-24 last time out. Maybe they’ll repeat the performance… or maybe they’ll forget how to punt and just throw it to Mississippi State’s return man.

4. Prediction & Parlay: Bet Like You’re Hosting a Football Trivia Night
Same-Game Parlay Pick:
- Tennessee -7.5 (Moneyline: ~1.95 odds)
- Under 63.5 Total Points (Moneyline: ~1.91 odds)

Why? Tennessee’s offense is potent enough to cover the spread, but their defense is so shredded, they’d let a toddler score a touchdown if told “Good job, buddy!” The Under is tempting because both teams are missing key contributors—Tennessee’s offense might sputter without its RBs, and Mississippi State’s defense could struggle to generate turnovers.

Implied Probability Check: Tennessee’s -7.5 line implies a ~67% chance to win outright or cover. The Under 63.5 has a ~52% chance. Multiply those (0.67 * 0.52 = 34.8%), and your parlay has a 34.8% implied probability. At combined odds of ~3.7 (1.95 * 1.91), the return is ~270% if both hit.

Final Verdict: Go with the parlay, but pray Tennessee’s “sieve defense” doesn’t leak 40 points. If Fluff Bothwell doesn’t live up to his name (i.e., he’s not actually fluffy), and Tennessee’s offense avoids a mid-game mutiny, this could be the most satisfying 3-hour nap of your week.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Mississippi State 20. Cover the spread, but don’t expect a clinic. After all, this is football—where 15 men on the field can’t stop a man named “Fluff” from running for 150 yards.

Created: Sept. 27, 2025, 8:07 p.m. GMT