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Parlay: Texas Rangers VS Houston Astros 2025-07-12

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: Same-Game Parlay Breakdown
July 12, 2025 | 7:35 PM ET | Daikin Park

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Key Statistics & Trends
1. Astros Dominance:
- 55-38 overall, 38-27 when favored.
- 4.4 runs/game (10th MLB), 105 HRs (13th).
- Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.90 ERA) starts; owns a 1.85 ERA in his last 5 starts.
- Jose Altuve (.312 BA, 14 HRs) and Isaac Paredes (19 HRs) anchor the lineup.

1. Rangers Struggles:
   - 46-48 overall, 16-31 as underdogs.
   - 4.0 runs/game (24th MLB), 97 HRs (19th).
   - Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.29 ERA) starts; owns a 1.98 ERA in his last 6 starts.
   - Marcus Semien (.239 BA, 10 HRs) is their only consistent threat.

1. Head-to-Head:
   - Astros own a 10-5 edge in the season series.
   - DeGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 4 career starts vs. Houston.

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Injuries & Updates
- No major injuries listed for either team.
- DeGrom’s dominance (2.29 ERA) and Rangers’ weak offense (4th-lowest SLG vs. LHP) suggest a low-scoring game.

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Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations

1. Moneyline
- Astros: Implied probability = 53.3% (from -200 odds).
- Adjusted probability = (53.3% + 59%)/2 = 56.3% (MLB favorite win rate = 59%).
- EV: Positive (56.3% > 53.3%).

• Rangers: Implied probability = 48.1% (from +205 odds).
  - Adjusted probability = (48.1% + 41%)/2 = 44.6%.
  - EV: Negative.

2. Run Line
- Astros -1.5: Implied probability = 47.6% (-110 odds).
- Adjusted probability = (47.6% + 59%)/2 = 53.3%.
- EV: Positive.

• Rangers +1.5: Implied probability = 28.6% (+250 odds).
  - Adjusted probability = (28.6% + 41%)/2 = 34.8%.
  - EV: Slightly positive, but low.

3. Total Runs
- Over 6.5: Implied probability = 50% (even odds).
- Adjusted probability = (50% + 41%)/2 = 45.5% (underdog win rate for Over).
- EV: Negative.

• Under 6.5: Implied probability = 54.6% (from -115 odds).
  - Adjusted probability = (54.6% + 59%)/2 = 56.8%.
  - EV: Positive.

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Best Same-Game Parlay
Astros Moneyline (-200) + Under 6.5 (-115)
- Combined Implied Probability: 53.3% (Astros) * 54.6% (Under) = 29.1%.
- Parlay Odds: 1.81 (Astros) * 1.83 (Under) = 3.31 (decimal) ≈ +231.
- Parlay Implied Probability: 1 / 3.31 = 30.2%.
- EV: +1.1% (29.1% expected win rate vs. 30.2% implied).

Why This Works:
- Astros’ Adjusted Win Rate (56.3%) > Implied (53.3%).
- Under 6.5 Adjusted Win Rate (56.8%) > Implied (54.6%).
- DeGrom’s elite ERA (2.29) and Rangers’ 1st-place team ERA (3.31) make a low-scoring game likely.

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Final Verdict
Bet: Astros Moneyline (-200) & Under 6.5 (-115) Parlay
Odds: +231 (3.31 decimal)
EV Edge: +1.1%
Rationale: The Astros’ strong adjusted win rate and the Rangers’ stingy pitching make this parlay a sharp play. While the EV is modest, the combination of a high-confidence favorite and a defensible Under creates a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Bonus Pick: If you want more upside, consider Astros -1.5 (-110) & Under 6.5 (-115) for a +325 parlay (EV: +1.5%), but note the added risk of the spread.

Play it at FanDuel or BetMGM for the best odds. Good luck, and may your EV always be positive. 🎲

Created: July 12, 2025, 6:13 p.m. GMT