Parlay: Troy Trojans VS Buffalo Bulls 2025-09-20

Troy vs. Buffalo: A Same-Game Parlay Breakdown That’s Less “Thriller” and More “Therapy Session”

Parsing the Odds: Why Buffalo’s Spread is a Math Problem Troy Can’t Solve
Let’s start with the cold, hard numbers. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points across nearly every bookmaker, with implied probabilities hovering around 58-59% for a win. Troy’s odds of +2.95 (implying a 25-34% chance) are as appealing as a buffet at a funeral. The total is set at 42.5 points, with slight variations—Buffalo’s offense has averaged 186 yards and 22 points per game, while Troy’s defense has allowed 25 points per game this season.

Here’s the rub: Troy’s starting QB, Goose Crowder, is out indefinitely after shoulder surgery. His replacement, Tucker Kilcrease, completed just 10/29 passes for 65 yards in a recent loss to Memphis. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s QB, Da’Quan Robinson, has thrown for 558 yards and five touchdowns in three games. The math here isn’t complex—Troy’s offense is a stalled Prius, and Buffalo’s defense is a brick wall with a side of acrobatics (more on that later).

News Digest: Crowder’s Injury is Less “Tragic” and More “Plot Twist”
Troy’s recent performance reads like a horror movie: 28-7 loss to Memphis, 107 total yards, and zero offensive touchdowns. Coach Gerad Parker’s postgame quote—“many missed assignments”—is the sports equivalent of saying “we forgot the recipe while baking a soufflé.” With Crowder out, Troy’s offense is now a group of actors in a play who forgot their lines and brought a GoFundMe for the set.

Buffalo, meanwhile, is the star of a Netflix docuseries about dominance. Their QB’s stat line is so good, it’s practically a LinkedIn headline: “Da’Quan Robinson: 558 Yards, 5 TDs, and Zero Regrets (Yet).” The Bulls’ defense? They’ve racked up eight sacks and four takeaways, including defensive touchdowns. If football had a “Most Likely to Survive the Apocalypse” award, Buffalo would be the MVP.

Humor Injection: Gooses, Brick Walls, and the Spread That Isn’t a Spread
Let’s lean into the absurdity. Troy’s QB, Goose Crowder, is out. Not injured—out. As in, “We’ll see him again when the season ends… maybe.” His backup? A guy who completed 34.5% of his passes for 65 yards. It’s like sending a penguin to a beach volleyball tournament.

Buffalo’s defense, on the other hand, is a human flywall. They’d stop a hurricane if it tried to score. And the 6.5-point spread? That’s not a number—it’s a taunt. “Come on, Troy,” Buffalo says, “we’ll let you have six and a half points. Prove us wrong.” Spoiler: They won’t.

The Parlay Play: Buffalo -6.5 and Under 42.5
Here’s the best same-game parlay: Buffalo to cover the -6.5 spread and Under 42.5 total points. Why?

Buffalo -6.5: With Da’Quan Robinson throwing and Troy’s offense sputtering, Buffalo should win by double digits. Even if they only win by 7, the spread is covered. It’s like ordering a pizza and getting a calzone—still good, just… different.
2. Under 42.5: Troy’s offense is a leaky faucet, and Buffalo’s defense is a plunger. If Buffalo scores 30 and Troy scores 7, the total is 37, which is comfortably under. It’s not a high-scoring shootout—it’s a defensive clinic in disguise.

Final Prediction: Buffalo 27, Troy 10
Buffalo wins by 17, covers the spread, and keeps the game under the total. Troy’s season continues to be a cautionary tale about QB injuries and missed assignments. As for Goose Crowder? He’ll return “by season’s end,” which is code for “we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it—and hope the bridge doesn’t collapse.”

Verdict: Lay the points on Buffalo and Under the total. It’s a parlay with the confidence of a coach who’s never seen a film session.

Created: Sept. 18, 2025, 1:44 p.m. GMT