Parlay: Valencia VS Alavés 2025-10-20

Alaves vs. Valencia: A Parlay of Woes and Woes (With a Side of Goals)
By The Sports Scribe Who Still Owers DraftKings $300

Parsing the Odds: Because Math > Feelings
Let’s cut through the noise. Alaves (-111 on the moneyline, per BetRivers) are the slight favorites here, with Valencia (+250) as the underdog and a draw priced at +205. Translating that into implied probabilities? Alaves’ 47.6% chance to win, Valencia’s 28.6%, and a 32.3% draw. The bookmakers aren’t betting on a fireworks show: under 2.5 goals is a steep -155, while over 2.5 is +240. Both teams to score? A 2.07 line suggests a 48.3% chance—basically, the bookies think this’ll be a tense, low-scoring duel where someone trips over a loose goal.

The most likely scoreline? Alaves 1-0. At 6.00 odds, it’s the “safe” bet for a team that’s won just once in their last five (a 3-1 thrashing of Elche, their lone balm in a sea of mediocrity). Valencia, meanwhile, are a mess—three games without a win, including a 2-1 loss to Girona that had fans wondering if their team had swapped cleats for flip-flops.

Digesting the News: Crisis Mode and “Meh” Mode
Alaves? They’re the definition of “middle-of-the-road.” They’ve beaten Elche, lost to Sevilla and Mallorca, and drawn with Real Sociedad. Their attack is a slow-burn espresso: not much oomph, but enough to keep the lights on. Key man: Lucas Oyarzabal (not to be confused with a Spanish artisanal cheese), who’s their primary spark plug.

Valencia, though? They’re in a crisis so deep, their dugout might as well be a black hole. Ranked 15th, two points from the drop zone, they’ve lost to Oviedo (a Segunda División team, for crying out loud) and Girona. Their defense? A sieve that’s learned to sieve better. Their attack? A mime trying to score with words. Key man: Rodrigo, who’s still waiting for a “Rodrigo’s back!” moment that’s more “Rodrigo’s on vacation again.”

Recent headlines? Valencia’s manager is reportedly “considering his options” (read: panic mode), while Alaves’ coach is “optimistic” (read: desperate for a win to justify his salary).

The Humor Section: Because Sports Are a Joke
Let’s be real: Valencia’s defense is like a guest who shows up to a costume party dressed as “someone who doesn’t belong here.” They’ve allowed goals like they’re handing out free samples at a cheese shop. And their attack? It’s a slow-food movement in a world of drive-thrus.

Alaves, on the other hand, are the sports equivalent of a “meh” emoji. They’re not great, but they’re not actively trying to lose. Their Mendizorroza Stadium? A place where Valencia’s hopes and dreams go to die… slowly, like a dying iPhone battery during a Zoom meeting.

The Parlay Play: Under 2.5 Goals + Alaves to Win
Here’s the play: Alaves to win (-111) + Under 2.5 Goals (-155). Why? Because Valencia’s attack is a broken metronome (irritating but ineffective), and Alaves’ defense is a “boring but reliable” mortgage company. The 1-0 line at 6.00 is tempting, but combining the win and under gives you a 2.25 x 1.55 = 3.49 implied return (if you’re into math). It’s a low-risk, middle-ground bet that punishes Valencia’s inefficiency and Alaves’ home-field “meh.”

Prediction: Alaves 1-0. A goal from Oyarzabal, Valencia’s defense looking like a toddler in a chess tournament, and a crowd that’s half-asleep by halftime. Bet on the under 2.5 goals—unless you fancy a nap.

Final Score Prediction: Alaves 1, Valencia 0. Profit: ~$3.49 for every $1. Risk: Your dignity. Worth it.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m just here to pretend I know what I’m doing. Also, DraftKings is not responsible for any existential crises caused by this analysis.

Created: Oct. 20, 2025, 5:06 p.m. GMT