Parlay: Washington Commanders VS New England Patriots 2025-08-08

Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots: Preseason Opener Parlay Breakdown
Where the Pats Bring the Heat and the Commanders Bring… Josh Johnson?

1. Parse the Odds: A Math Class You Didn’t Sign Up For
Let’s crunch numbers like a defensive coordinator dissecting film. The New England Patriots are the undisputed favorite here, with moneyline odds hovering around 1.3 to 1.36 (implied probability: 55-57%). The Washington Commanders? They’re priced at 3.1 to 3.55 (implied 28-29%), which is about the same chance of me convincing you that Josh Johnson is still a viable NFL starter.

The spread tells a similar story: Patriots are -6.5 favorites across the board, with odds between 1.85-1.95. That means bookmakers expect New England to win by double digits, or at least avoid a disaster like the time the Commanders’ practice squad scored a touchdown in a scrimmage. The total is set at 36.5 points, with even money on Over/Under. Given the Patriots’ explosive offense and the Commanders’ QB-by-committee nightmare, this feels like a “take the Over” scenario… unless Sam Hartman trips over his own feet and fumbles the ball into the stands.

2. Digest the News: Drake Maye vs. The Josh-Sam Express
The Patriots are coming off a joint practice where Drake Maye went 18-for-27 with multiple touchdowns, looking like a man who just discovered the joys of NFL football. Meanwhile, Washington is splitting time between Josh Johnson (veteran, but last seen throwing a pick-six to a defensive back who was definitely sleeping) and Sam Hartman, a Notre Dame QB who’s now tasked with keeping pace with Maye’s circus act.

As Patriots coach Mike Vrabel (three-time Super Bowl winner, not a man to be trifled with) said, “Our second-string defense could outplay Washington’s starters.” That’s not just bravado—it’s math. The Commanders’ offense is a patchwork of “meh,” while New England’s defense, even with backups, smells like a well-oiled machine.

3. Humorous Spin: Football, But Make It Absurd
Imagine the Commanders’ QB room: Josh Johnson and Sam Hartman, a duo so underwhelming they could power a ghost town’s haunted house. Together, they’re like a double feature of “Meh: The Movie” and “Also Meh: The Sequel.” Meanwhile, the Patriots are rolling with Drake Maye, who’s throwing touchdowns like a magician pulling rabbits from hats—except the hats are helmets, and the rabbits are game-changing plays.

The Commanders’ defense? They’ll have to tackle the ghost of Jayden Daniels, who’s currently vacationing in Las Vegas, while New England’s second-string D brings the heat like a July barbecue. If this game were a pizza, the Patriots would be the pepperoni (bold, flavorful, essential), and the Commanders would be… the crust. Necessary, but only if you’re hungry for something technically edible.

4. Prediction: The Pats Take the Cake (or the Ball, or the Game)
Putting it all together: The Patriots’ offense is cooking with gas, their defense is a well-dressed wall of humanity, and Washington’s QB situation is less “dynasty” and more “let’s hope the backup batteries hold out.” The best same-game parlay? Patriots to win (-6.5) AND Over 36.5 points.

Why? Maye’s red-hot practice performance suggests he’ll carry the offense, while the Commanders’ QBs are likely to commit crimes against football. The Over is a lock if Maye and the Patriots’ second-stringers go full “let it all hang out.”
- Odds? Combining the Patriots’ spread (-6.5 at ~1.9 odds) with the Over (1.91) gives a parlay payout of roughly 3.6:1 (implied probability: ~27%). That’s a smarter bet than Jayden Daniels’ decision to take a nap during training camp.

Final Verdict: Bet the Patriots to win and cover. If they don’t, check your TV—maybe you’re watching a highlight reel from 2019.

---
“The Pats bring the A-game. The Commanders bring the ‘A’ as in ‘Ain’t no way this is happening.’”

Created: Aug. 8, 2025, 4:19 p.m. GMT