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Parlay: Washington Nationals VS San Diego Padres 2025-06-24

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Best Same-Game Parlay: San Diego Padres to Win + Under 8.5 Runs
Bookmaker: LowVig.ag
Combined Odds: +235 (3.35 decimal)

Why This Parlay?
1. Padres to Win (-167 ML)
- The Padres are a strong home team (42-35) with a 61.5% win rate as favorites.
- Starter Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.59 ERA) has been effective, and Ryan Bergert (1.87 ERA, 19 K in 24â…” IP) is a reliable reliever.
- The Nationals’ offense ranks 28th in MLB in batting average (.233) and 29th in on-base percentage (.296).

  1. Under 8.5 Runs (-117)
    - PETCO Park is a pitcher-friendly park, ranking 1st in MLB for fewest runs per game (3.7).
    - The Padres rank 10th in MLB in team ERA (3.72), and the Nationals rank 24th in batting average against (.242).
    - Kolek (3.59 ERA) vs. Mitchell Parker (4.59 ERA) creates a mismatch favoring the Under.

Key Stats & Context
- Padres’ Pitching: 4th in MLB in fewest home runs allowed (65).
- Nationals’ Hitting: 26th in MLB in runs scored (244).
- Park Impact: PETCO has the lowest average runs per game (3.7) in MLB.

Implied Probability & Value
- Combined Odds: 3.35 (29.7% implied probability).
- Edge: The Padres’ strong pitching and the Nationals’ weak offense align with a low-scoring game.

Avoid Over/Padres Win Parlays: While tempting, the Over (1.81-1.82 odds) is less likely given the context. Stick with the Padres’ win and Under for the best value.

Final Note: This parlay leverages the Padres’ pitching dominance and PETCO’s run-suppressing environment. LowVig.ag offers the best combined odds for this combo.

Created: June 24, 2025, 12:54 p.m. GMT