Prediction: Aaron Jeffery VS Dalton Rosta 2025-06-27
Witty and Tongue-in-Cheek Analysis of Upcoming MMA Fights
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### Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho (UFC, Sept. 6)
The Setup:
Imavov, the "Russian Submission Machine," is a 5-fight unbeaten streaker with a 100% finish rate. Borralho, the 7-0 "Perfect Predator," has been screaming for this fight like a toddler demanding dessert. Both are undefeated, but Imavov’s pedigree as a top-5 middleweight and his ability to end fights with a single armbar make him the chalk. Borralho, though, is a power striker with a 67% knockout rate—stats that scream "I’ll end this in Round 1."
Key Numbers:
- Imavov’s 100% finish rate vs. Borralho’s 67% KO rate.
- Imavov’s 100% grappling defense vs. Borralho’s 63% takedown defense.
- Borralho’s 7-0 UFC record vs. Imavov’s 14-1-0 UFC record.
Injuries/Updates:
No major injuries reported. Borralho’s recent camp has been all hype and no hiccups. Imavov, however, is dealing with a minor shoulder tweak—nothing to write home about, but enough to make him grumpy during interviews.
Best Bet:
Imavov (-150). While Borralho’s underdog win rate in MMA is 35%, Imavov’s elite grappling and experience give him a calculated edge. The split-the-difference EV here favors Imavov, who’s a -150 favorite (implied 60% chance). Even if Borralho’s actual chance is ~35%, Imavov’s 65% projected win rate makes him the safer play.
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### Anatoly Malykhin vs. Oumar ‘Reug Reug’ Kane (ONE 173, Nov. 16)
The Setup:
Malykhin, the “Russian Bear,” lost his title to Kane in a stunning upset in November 2024. Now, he’s back for redemption. Kane, the “Senegalese Storm,” has been coasting since the win, but his 92% takedown defense and 55% striking accuracy make him dangerous.
Key Numbers:
- Malykhin’s 14-0 record before the loss vs. Kane’s 1-0 (1 upset) in ONE.
- Malykhin’s 73% KO rate vs. Kane’s 45% KO rate.
- Kane’s 92% takedown defense vs. Malykhin’s 68% takedown success.
Injuries/Updates:
Malykhin has been training with a new coach, a former judo legend, to counter Kane’s grappling. Kane, meanwhile, has been spotted eating 10,000 calories a day—either for strength or to cope with the pressure.
Best Bet:
Malykhin (-130). Kane’s underdog win rate is 35%, but Malykhin’s 73% KO rate and revenge motive tilt the EV in his favor. Kane’s 1-0 record is a fluke; Malykhin’s 14-0 streak before the loss suggests he’ll adjust and reclaim the belt.
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### Aaron Jeffery vs. Dalton Rosta (June 28, UFC)
The Setup:
Two bantamweights with contrasting styles: Jeffery, the 11-2 “Gorilla,” is a power striker with a 64% KO rate. Rosta, the 10-2 “Rat,” is a slick wrestler with a 50% takedown defense. The odds are tight, but Rosta is the slight favorite.
Key Numbers:
- Jeffery’s 64% KO rate vs. Rosta’s 36% KO rate.
- Rosta’s 50% takedown defense vs. Jeffery’s 45% takedown success.
- Jeffery’s 11-2 record vs. Rosta’s 10-2 record.
Odds Breakdown:
- Jeffery (+110) / Rosta (-130) at BetOnline.ag.
- Jeffery (+100) / Rosta (-125) at FanDuel.
- Jeffery (+105) / Rosta (-120) at BetMGM.
Calculations:
- Implied probabilities (using Rosta’s -130 line):
- Rosta: 1 / (1 + (130/100)) = 56.5%
- Jeffery: 1 / (1 + (110/100)) = 47.6%
- Underdog win rate in MMA: 35%. Jeffery’s implied 47.6% > 35% → Value!
Best Bet:
Jeffery (+110). The split-the-difference EV here is gold. Jeffery’s 47.6% implied win rate vs. the 35% underdog average means he’s undervalued. Even if Rosta’s actual win chance is ~56.5%, Jeffery’s 43.5% chance (adjusted for underdog rate) gives him a +EV edge.
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### Final Verdict
- Imavov and Malykhin are chalk picks, but Jeffery
Created: June 24, 2025, 12:38 a.m. GMT