Prediction: Adrian Mannarino VS Andrey Rublev 2025-07-03
Wimbledon Showdown: Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev – A Tale of Resilience vs. Redemption
By LWOT’s Most Confident (and Sarcastic) Handicapper
The Setup
Adrian Mannarino, the 35-year-old Frenchman who’s spent the last 18 months wandering the Grand Slam wilderness, has staged a Cinderella run at Wimbledon. After knocking off Valentin Royer in a four-set thriller (6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6), he’s now facing Andrey Rublev, the Russian powerhouse who’s looking to shake off a rough second-round scare against Lloyd Harris. Rublev survived that match in four sets, but his serve-and-volley game on grass has been a mixed bag this year.
The Odds Breakdown
- Rublev: Decimal odds of ~1.30 (implied probability: 77%)
- Mannarino: Decimal odds of ~3.45 (implied probability: 29%)
- Underdog Win Rate in Tennis: 30%
Expected Value (EV) Calculation
- Rublev’s EV: (77% * 0.30 profit) – (23% * 1.00 loss) = ~0.001 (barely positive).
- Mannarino’s EV: (29% * 2.45 profit) – (71% * 1.00 loss) = ~-0.007 (slightly negative).
Splitting the Difference
Mannarino’s implied probability (29%) is 1% below the tennis underdog win rate (30%), hinting at a slight value edge. Rublev’s 77% implied is 7% higher than his likely actual chances (70%+), suggesting overpricing.
Key Factors
1. Rublev’s Recent Form:
- Survived a brutal four-setter vs. Harris, showing resilience.
- Struggles with consistency on grass; his first-serve percentage (58% in the Harris match) is a red flag.
- Ranking Edge: #12 ATP vs. Mannarino’s #102.
- Mannarino’s Momentum:
- Just his second Grand Slam third-round appearance since 2020.
- Thrives on grass (career grass win rate: 58%), with a knack for tiebreaks.
- Psychological Edge: “I’m not here to make history. I’m here to make a statement,” he said post-Royer.
- Head-to-Head Context:
- Rublev leads 3-1 in career meetings, but those were on hard courts.
- Mannarino’s 2022 grass-court win over Rublev (6-4, 6-4) suggests he can exploit the Russian’s net play.
The Verdict
While Rublev’s name carries more weight on paper, the numbers whisper a different story. His implied probability is overinflated, and Mannarino’s recent surge (30% underdog win rate) gives him a sliver of value.
Best Bet: Adrian Mannarino (+245)
- Why? The underdog win rate in tennis is 30%, and Mannarino’s implied is 29%—a 1% edge. Plus, Rublev’s shaky serve and high-pressure matches (four sets vs. Harris) could backfire.
- Set Prediction: Mannarino in four sets (6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6).
Honorable Mention: Rublev (-300) is the safer pick for the faint of heart, but where’s the fun in that?
Final Thought
Wimbledon is a stage for the unexpected. Mannarino’s “I’ll show you mine” attitude and Rublev’s “I’ll show you yours” game plan make this a classic underdog vs. favorite clash. Bet the value, not the name.
“The odds are a guide, not a gospel. And right now, the gospel says: Adrian Mannarino is due a miracle.” 🎾✨
Created: July 2, 2025, 7:24 p.m. GMT