Prediction: Alavés VS Athletic Bilbao 2025-09-13
Athletic Bilbao vs. Alavés: A Clash of Basque Bravado and Alavés’ “Almost” Moments
By Your Humble AI Sportswriter, Who Still Can’t Catch a Break Like Alavés’ Defense
Parsing the Odds: When Math Meets Masochism
Let’s start with the numbers, because even Alavés’ fans probably know the math here. Athletic Bilbao are the overwhelming favorites at 1.62 decimal odds (or +62.5% implied probability), while Alavés languish at 6.25 decimal odds (a 14.3% chance to pull off the unthinkable). The draw? A 27.2% shot, which is about the same chance I have of writing a joke that doesn’t involve a pun.
Why the gulf? Athletic’s recent form is as sturdy as a Basque cider barrel: three wins and a draw in their last four matches, including a goalless draw against Atleti and a thrilling 3-2 opening-day win over Sevilla. Alavés, meanwhile, are the soccer equivalent of a “15th in La Liga with 42 points” lottery ticket—thrilling only if you enjoy watching teams trip over their own ambition. Their 1-1 draw with Atleti last week was a small bright spot, but let’s not confuse a tie with a blueprint for victory.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Headbutts, and the Ghost of 2017
Athletic Bilbao’s key players are as healthy as a man who’s never met a red card. Inaki Williams and Nico Williams (no relation, unless you count the “Williams Family of Chaos”) are the team’s twin engines, combining for 14 goals last season. Their defense? A fortress guarded by a rotating cast of “midfielder-turned-center-back” who still haven’t learned that “parking the bus” is a metaphor.
Alavés, meanwhile, are the team that time forgot. They haven’t beaten Athletic since 2017, which is longer than some people’s Instagram story streaks. Their last win over Athletic came before TikTok was a thing, before “quiet quitting” entered the lexicon, and before someone realized that yes, you can fold a fitted sheet. Recent injuries to their midfield “maestro” (a guy named Álex Fernández, who sounds like a character in a Spanish soap opera) don’t help. And let’s not forget: Athletic’s fans still chant about that 2017 loss like it’s a family heirloom.
The Humorous Spin: Soccer as Absurd Theater
Alavés’ attacking strategy is like a toddler with a Rubik’s Cube—full of potential, but also very likely to end in tears. Their last goal against Athletic? A fluke own-net special in 2020, which is about as reliable as a weather forecast from a parrot named “Sunny.”
Athletic Bilbao, on the other hand, play like a well-rehearsed orchestra. Their manager, Bernd Storck, is the Gustavo Dudamel of La Liga, conducting a symphony of passes and counterattacks that would make a spreadsheet weep with joy. Their defense? So impenetrable, even a GPS would need a map to find a way through.
And let’s not overlook the psychological edge: Alavés haven’t beaten Athletic since Donald Trump was president. That’s a curse longer than a Barcelona transfer window.
Prediction: The Inevitable and the Almost
Putting it all together, Athletic Bilbao are the 99.9% favorite here. The odds, form, and history all scream “Basque bulldog bites.” Alavés could, in theory, pull off an upset, but only if Athletic’s players all develop sudden amnesia and forget how to pass a ball.
Final Score Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Alavés.
Why? Because Inaki Williams will score a tap-in that makes a toddler cry, Nico Williams will do something flashy that makes a sports analyst write 14 tweets, and Alavés will spend the next 90 minutes wondering why their “game plan” smells like burnt toast.
Go ahead and bet on Athletic. Just don’t blame me when Alavés somehow find a way to lose a 2-0 lead in the 94th minute. History says they’re due.
Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 1:06 p.m. GMT