Prediction: Amanda Anisimova VS Aryna Sabalenka 2025-07-09
Wimbledon 2025 Semifinal Showdown: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova
By The Handicapper with a Six-Month Warranty
The Setup:
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning Wimbledon queen (well, semifinalist, but let’s not split hairs), faces Amanda Anisimova, the 13th seed who’s been a Grand Slam enigma. Sabalenka just survived a three-set thriller against Laura Siegemund, clawing back from a set and a break down in the third. Anisimova, meanwhile, has quietly upset Madison Keys and Leylah Fernandez to reach this stage, proving she’s no pushover.
The Numbers Game:
- Sabalenka’s Implied Probability (from odds): 71–77% (decimal odds 1.32–1.40).
- Anisimova’s Implied Probability: 29–30% (decimal odds 3.0–3.45).
- Tennis Underdog Win Rate: 30%.
The Calculus of Chaos:
Sabalenka’s odds imply she’s a 71–77% favorite, but historical data suggests favorites win ~70% of the time. That’s a 1–7% overpricing, depending on the bookmaker. Anisimova, meanwhile, is priced at the exact 30% underdog rate. Split the difference? Sabalenka’s EV is slightly negative; Anisimova’s is neutral.
The Plot Twist:
Sabalenka’s recent form is insane. She’s won 18 of her last 20 matches, including a comeback win over Siegemund where she saved match points. Her serve (89% first-serve percentage) and net aggression are her weapons. Anisimova, though, has a 4.5–4.0 edge in head-to-heads against top-10 players and thrives on baseline rallies. But let’s be real: Sabalenka’s mental toughness is elite. She’s a three-time Grand Slam semifinalist and has the swagger of a player who’s not going to let a 13th seed steal her crown.
The Verdict:
While Anisimova offers slightly better value (30% implied vs. 30% historical underdog rate), Sabalenka’s dominance and recent resilience make her the safer bet. However, if you’re feeling spicy, Anisimova at +300 could pay off if she can exploit Sabalenka’s unforced errors (which spiked in her last match).
Best Bet:
Aryna Sabalenka (-4.5 sets, -150)
- Why? Her implied probability (71%) is just 1% over the expected favorite rate. She’s the most likely winner, and the spread (-4.5) gives you a buffer if she’s not at her best.
- EV Check: Sabalenka’s EV is -1% (overpriced), but her 70% historical win rate makes this a low-risk play.
The Sarcasm:
If you bet on Anisimova, tell yourself she’s “due.” If you bet on Sabalenka, tell yourself you’re “responsible.” Either way, Wimbledon’s giving us a thriller—and the tennis gods are laughing all the way to the bank.
Final Line:
Sabalenka to win in three sets, 6-4, 6-3. Anisimova will make it interesting, but the Belarusian beast isn’t done yet. 🎾
Created: July 8, 2025, 6:13 p.m. GMT