Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks VS Chicago White Sox 2025-06-24
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Runs)
June 24, 2025 | Guaranteed to be less exciting than a nap, but with more strikeouts.
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### The Setup
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-161) are here to flex their offensive muscles against the Chicago White Sox (25-53), a team that’s been so bad this season they’ve basically invented a new sport called “Why Are You Even Here?” The D-backs, fresh off a 7-0 Game 1 shellacking, are 12-7 in June and have the firepower to make this series a one-way ticket to Chicago’s early summer vacation.
Key Stats to Know:
- Arizona’s offense: 5.1 runs/game (12th MLB). They’ve got Corbin Carroll (career .280 BA) and Eugenio Suárez (28 HRs) to keep the bats hot.
- Chicago’s offense: 3.5 runs/game (28th MLB). Their lineup is so anemic, even Miggy Vargas’ .300 average feels like a mercy kill.
- Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson (4.05 ERA) vs. Sean Burke (5.72 ERA). Burke’s ERA is so high, it’s basically a metaphor for the White Sox’s entire season.
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### The Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Arizona at -161, Chicago at +220 (varies slightly by bookie).
- Spread: Arizona -1.5 (-110), Chicago +1.5 (-110).
- Total: 9.0 runs (Over: +100, Under: -120).
Underdog Win Rate Context:
- Baseball’s underdog win rate is 41%, so Chicago’s 22% implied win rate (from +220 odds) is way too optimistic. The D-backs’ 59% implied win rate is also a bit too low for a team this dominant.
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### The EV Calculus
Let’s crunch the numbers like a reliever crumbles under pressure:
1. Moneyline (Arizona):
- Implied probability: ~59.8% (from -161).
- Adjusted for context: Arizona’s 39-38 record and 5.1 R/G vs. Chicago’s 3.5 R/G = ~62% true win chance.
- EV: (0.62 * 0.61) - (0.38 * 1) = -0.008 (slightly negative, but close enough).
2. Over 9.5 Runs:
- Combined scoring average: Arizona (5.1) + Chicago (4.5) = 9.6 R/G.
- Implied probability for Over: 51.3% (from +100).
- True probability: ~53% (based on offensive trends).
- EV: (0.53 * 1) - (0.47 * 1) = +0.06 (slight edge).
3. Spread (Arizona -1.5):
- Implied probability: 52.4% (from -110).
- True probability: Arizona’s +0.6 R/G edge vs. Chicago = ~54%.
- EV: (0.54 * 0.91) - (0.46 * 1) = -0.004 (meh).
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### The Verdict
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Runs (+100)
Why? The Diamondbacks’ offense is clicking, and even with Ryne Nelson’s 4.05 ERA, their 5.1 R/G and Chicago’s 4.5 R/G allowed create a 9.6 R/G combined average. The Over is priced at 51.3% implied, but the true probability is 53%—a +6% edge. Plus, who doesn’t want to see a 10-run game?
Honorable Mention: Arizona Moneyline (-161)
If you’re feeling spicy, the D-backs are a solid pick. But the EV is razor-thin, and the White Sox have a 41% underdog win rate. Still, Arizona’s 62% true win chance vs. Chicago’s 22% implied is a +40% edge in their favor.
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### Final Thoughts
The White Sox are the definition of “baseball’s version of a typo.” Arizona, meanwhile, is a team with a 12-7 June record and the NL West’s attention. While the Over 9.5 runs is the most mathematically sound play, the D-backs’ moneyline is a safe bet for those who prefer their underdog rates served with a side of “this is why we can’t have nice things.”
Prediction: Arizona 6, Chicago 4.5 (because fractional runs are the only thing Chicago can handle).
Created: June 24, 2025, 6:01 a.m. GMT