Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-07-26
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: A Tale of Two Batting Averages (And Why One Team Should Pack Their Bags for the Circus)
Parse the Odds: The Math of Mayhem
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-132) are favored to win this Friday night clash at PNC Park, where the Pirates (42-61) have the MLB’s worst offense and a slugging percentage that makes a wet noodle look like a home-run derby contender. Let’s crunch the numbers:
- Diamondbacks: A .446 team slugging percentage (2nd in MLB), 5.1 runs per game, and Ryne Nelson, who’s looked like a fortress lately—allowing one run or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts.
- Pirates: A paltry 3.4 runs per game (dead last), 11th-ranked ERA, and Mike Burrows on the mound… which is concerning, because Burrows’ name sounds like a beer you’d find in a Pirate’s tavern, not a major league rotation.
The implied probability of the Diamondbacks winning? 56.9%. For the Pirates (+212)? A laughable 32.1%. If this were a poker game, Arizona would be holding a straight flush while Pittsburgh’s got a “can I borrow a quarter?”
Digest the News: Injuries, All-Stars, and Why Paul Skenes Isn’t Here
Let’s untangle the chaos. The Pirates are coming off a sweep of the Tigers—Detroit’s offense must’ve mistaken their lineup for a mime show—but that hot streak feels as sustainable as a TikTok trend. Their star, Paul Skenes (1.91 ERA, All-Star buzz), isn’t starting this game. Instead, they’re rolling with Mike Burrows, whose 2025 ERA (4.72) makes him the human equivalent of a “maybe” on a pop quiz.
Arizona? They’re in a July swoon (50-53), but their offense is a loaded cannon: Geraldo Perdomo’s speed, Eugenio Suárez’s bat, and Josh Naylor’s ability to turn singles into “wait, did that count?” moments. And let’s not forget Corbin Carroll, who’s out there playing like he’s trying to set a GPS landmark for “Extra Base Hits.”
The Diamondbacks are also trading assets at the deadline, but hey—if you’re selling, you might as well win a few games to make the fans feel less like they’ve been sold a used car.
Humorous Spin: Why This Game Feels Like a Circus
The Pirates’ offense is so anemic, even Andrew McCutchen’s veteran swagger can’t summon a rally. Bryan Reynolds swings his bat like he’s trying to crack a safe, and Oneil Cruz’s HRs are so rare, they should come with a “limited edition” sticker. Meanwhile, Arizona’s lineup is like a buffet for the Pirates’ bullpen: “Help, we’re serving steak and lobster and they’re allergic to meat!”
As for Burrows vs. Nelson? Imagine Burrows as a joker in a deck of cards—colorful, but not someone you’d trust to hold your bridge. Nelson, on the other hand, is the guy who always knows where the cookies are stored.
Prediction: The Diamondbacks Will Win, Unless the Pirates Summon a Miracle (And a Better Offense)
The math, the matchups, and the sheer will of Arizona’s offense all point to one conclusion: The Diamondbacks win this game, 5-2. Nelson shuts the Pirates down long enough for Suárez and Naylor to do their thing, and Pittsburgh’s lineup will be so confused by the scoreboard, they’ll start arguing over whether they’re the home team.
Final Verdict: Lay the -132 on Arizona. The Pirates are a team that could hit a triple with the bases loaded and still leave runners on base. Unless Burrows becomes a secret ace (and let’s be real, he’s more of a secret disaster), Arizona’s too strong.
Bet on the D-backs, or risk looking as lost as the Pirates’ offense in a maze of bad decisions. 🏆
Created: July 25, 2025, 8:45 p.m. GMT