Prediction: Atlanta Braves VS Oakland Athletics 2025-07-10
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics: A Tale of Two Teams in Desperate Need of a Win
July 11, 2025 | 1:06 AM ET | Oakland Coliseum
The Setup:
The Atlanta Braves (39-50) and Oakland Athletics (37-55) are two of baseball’s most overachieving underachievers, united by their collective inability to win more than they lose. Tonight, they clash in a game that’s as much about pride as it is about avoiding the ignominy of a five-game losing streak (Atlanta) or a 56th loss (Oakland). The Braves, led by the enigmatic Bryce Elder (5.92 ERA), face a Athletics squad with Mitch Spence (4.06 ERA) on the mound and Brent Rooker’s 19 HRs and 50 RBIs to fear.
Key Numbers:
- Braves Moneyline Odds: 1.61–1.68 (implied probability: ~61.76%)
- Athletics Moneyline Odds: 2.28–2.38 (implied probability: ~39.47–43.48%)
- MLB Underdog Win Rate: 41%
- Braves as Favorites: 35-36 SU (35%)
- Athletics as Underdogs: 27-45 SU (38%)
The Math:
Using the formula for expected value (EV):
- Braves EV: Split the difference between implied probability (61.76%) and historical favorite win rate (59%). EV = 61.76% - 59% = +2.76%.
- Athletics EV: Split the difference between implied probability (43.48%) and historical underdog win rate (41%). EV = 43.48% - 41% = +2.48%.
The Verdict:
The Braves’ slight edge in EV (+2.76% vs. +2.48%) makes them the better play, but not by much. Elder’s 5.92 ERA is a red flag, but the Athletics’ lineup (led by Rooker’s 19 HRs) isn’t exactly a juggernaut. Spence’s 4.06 ERA gives Oakland a fighting chance, but the Braves’ recent 35-36 performance as favorites suggests they’re more likely to avoid a sixth consecutive loss.
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-150 to -175 equivalent)
Why? The implied probability (61.76%) exceeds the historical favorite win rate (59%) by a slim margin, giving them a +2.76% edge. While Elder’s ERA is concerning, the Athletics’ lack of a consistent offense (37th in MLB in runs per game) makes this a low-scoring, pitcher’s duel—favoring the Braves’ slightly better odds.
Honorable Mention: Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
Why? Both teams rank in the bottom half of MLB in scoring, and Spence-Elder matchups typically yield drier games. The Over 10.5 is priced at +190, but the Under (-110) offers better value given the context.
Final Thought:
This game is a coin flip with a slight tilt toward the Braves due to math, not magic. If you’re feeling spicy, take Oakland’s Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+400) for a fun parlay. But if you want to sleep at night? Stick with Atlanta.
“Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical.” — Yogi Berra (probably)
Created: July 10, 2025, 1:06 a.m. GMT