Prediction: Azat Maksum VS Tagir Ulanbekov 2025-06-21
Witty Analysis: Azat Maksum vs. Tagir Ulanbekov â A David vs. Goliath Flyweight Feud
âWhen a Kazakh underdog faces a Russian ranked 12th, the only thing more stacked than the odds is the drama.â
The Fighters: A Tale of Two Trajectories
Azat Maksum (15-1, 4 KOs, 6 subs):
- The unranked Kazakh phenom with a 15-1 MMA record, including a mix of flashy knockouts and technical submissions.
- A relative newcomer to the UFC (3rd fight), but brimming with confidence and a chip on his shoulder.
- Key Stat: 60% of his wins via submissionâsuggesting a grappling-heavy, pressure-based game plan.
Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2 UFC, ranked 12th):
- The Russian veteran with a 16-2 UFC record, including 10 finishes (6 KOs, 4 subs).
- A student of Khabib Nurmagomedovâs team, known for his wrestling and takedown defense.
- Key Stat: 85% of his UFC wins via finishâindicating a high-octane, aggressive style.
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value (EV)
Implied Probabilities (from decimal odds):
- Maksum: ~19.3% (odds: ~5.17)
- Ulanbekov: ~85.5% (odds: ~1.17)
Adjusting for MMA Underdog Win Rate (35%):
- Split the difference between the implied 19.3% and 35% â Maksumâs adjusted win rate: ~27.2%
- Ulanbekovâs adjusted win rate: ~72.8%
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Maksum: (0.272 * 5.17) - 1 â +38%
- Ulanbekov: (0.728 * 1.17) - 1 â -14%
Verdict: Maksum is the positive EV play, while Ulanbekovâs odds are overpriced.
Key Factors to Consider
1. Ranking Disparity: Ulanbekovâs 12th-ranked status vs. Maksumâs unranked status suggests experience and UFC pedigree favor the Russian.
2. Style Matchup: Maksumâs grappling (6 subs) vs. Ulanbekovâs wrestling (strong takedown defense). If Maksum can land a submission, heâs golden.
3. Home Advantage? Baku is in Azerbaijan, not Kazakhstan, so no clear crowd support for Maksum.
4. Injuries/Updates: No reported injuries or recent setbacks for either fighter.
Best Bet: Azat Maksum (-3.5) or Over 2.5 Rounds
Why Maksum?
- Despite being the underdog, his adjusted win probability (27.2%) exceeds the MMA underdog win rate (35%) when accounting for the EV split.
- The -3.5 spread (at +230) offers value if you believe Maksum can cover the 3.5-point deficit.
Why Over 2.5 Rounds?
- Both fighters have explosive finishes in their arsenals (Maksumâs 4 KOs, Ulanbekovâs 6 KOs).
- The -142 odds on the Over 2.5 rounds imply a 41% chance of a finish in 3+ rounds, but given their styles, a 50/50 split is plausible.
Final Prediction
Pick: Azat Maksum (-3.5) or Over 2.5 Rounds
Confidence: 68% (Ulanbekovâs 72.8% win rate vs. Maksumâs 27.2%, but EV favors the underdog).
âMaksumâs got the heart of a lion and the grappling of a bear. If he can survive the first round, this could get spicy.â
Bonus Trivia: Ulanbekovâs connection to Khabib Nurmagomedovâs team adds a layer of âRussian dominanceâ subtext, but donât sleep on the Kazakh underdogâs hunger for UFC validation.
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Stat Sources: UFC Fight Odds, NUR.KZ, MMAFighting.com
Odds as of June 21, 2025
Created: June 21, 2025, 4:09 p.m. GMT