Prediction: Ball State Cardinals VS Miami (OH) RedHawks 2025-11-29
Ball State Cardinals vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: A Red Bird Rivalry for the Ages
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a clash of Mid-American Conference titans where the underdog is about as likely to win as a vegan at a barbecue contest. The Ball State Cardinals (4-7) host the Miami (OH) RedHawks (6-5) in a game so lopsided on paper that the odds might as well be printed in giant, blinking letters: Miami -17.5. Let’s break this down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a sports bar bet gone wrong.
Parsing the Odds: Why Miami’s Implied Probability is Basically a Foregone Conclusion
The betting lines make it clear: Miami is favored by 17.5 points, with implied win probabilities hovering around 91.7% (per decimal odds of 1.09). Ball State’s +7.0 line gives them a 12.5% chance, which is about the same odds as me correctly predicting the outcome of a coin flip… while blindfolded and juggling flaming torches.
Statistically, this is a mismatch. Ball State’s offense is the NFL’s Houston Texans on a bad day—if the Texans only scored 13 points total in their last four games. They rank 133rd in scoring, 134th in total offense, and 132nd in passing. Their starting RB, Qua Ashley, is out, and freshman Jalen Bonds is now the man. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a well-oiled machine led by Adam Trick, who has more sacks (7.5) than Ball State has wins this season.
News Digest: Injuries, Transitions, and Why the Trophy is Probably Staying in Oxford
Ball State’s Plot Twist: Their offense is so anemic that even their star QB, Kiael Kelly, has resorted to rushing for touchdowns like it’s a last-ditch effort to save a sinking ship. With Ashley out, Bonds is now the “new hope” for a ground game that’s about as reliable as a Wi-Fi connection in a subway tunnel.
Miami’s Midseason Magic: After losing QB Dequan Finn, the RedHawks handed the reins to redshirt freshman Thomas Gotkowski, who has looked less like a rookie and more like a guy who just wandered in from a Friday Night Lights audition. His 185 passing yards and two touchdowns in his debut? A masterclass in “baptism by fire.” Miami’s RBs, Jordan Brunson and D’Shawntae Jones, are physical enough to make Ball State’s defense feel like it’s been hit by a freight train… twice.
And let’s not forget: Miami needs this win to secure a third straight MAC Championship Game berth. They’ve won the Red Bird Rivalry Trophy 7 of 8 times since 2017, with Ball State’s lone victory in 2019 feeling like a statistical anomaly caused by a rogue meteor.
Humorous Spin: Toaster Offenses, Circus Defenses, and the Red Bird That Never Flies South
Ball State’s offense is like a toaster that’s been told to run a marathon—it’s technically functional, but don’t expect it to win. Their reliance on Kelly’s legs is so desperate that it’s basically “winging it with a side of hope.” Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a human flywall that once caught a falling elephant (metaphorically, of course). Their 32nd-ranked unit is so good, they’d probably sack a stationary mannequin if it dared to wear a Ball State jersey.
As for the Red Bird Rivalry Trophy? It’s practically a permanent exhibit in Oxford’s trophy case, where it’s displayed next to the “Most Likely to Win the MAC” award Miami stole from Ball State in 2023.
Prediction: A Low-Scoring Rout and a Trip to Detroit
Miami wins this game like a math problem: 17.5-point spread + elite defense + a Ball State offense that can’t score enough to make a dent = RedHawks 24, Cardinals 10. The total points will likely fall under 41.5, because even if Ball State’s defense forces a few turnovers, their offense is too broken to capitalize.
In the end, Miami’s defense will smother Kelly’s mobility, their RBs will churn out enough yards to avoid embarrassment, and Ball State will be left wondering if their season finale is a “game” or a “practice with spectators.” The Red Bird Rivalry Trophy stays in Oxford, and Miami secures its MAC Championship Game ticket—because nothing says “dynasty” like winning a rivalry game by 20 points while your opponent’s offense looks like a spreadsheet error.
Final Verdict: Miami by 17.5. The only thing more certain than this line is that your Uncle Bob will insist Ball State pulls off the miracle… and then proceed to explain why he’s “just being realistic.”
Created: Nov. 29, 2025, 2:27 p.m. GMT