Prediction: Boise State Broncos VS South Florida Bulls 2025-08-28

Boise State Broncos vs. South Florida Bulls: A Tale of Tailbacks, Touchdowns, and Why Maddux Madsen Should Probably Stick to Running

The Boise State Broncos (ranked No. 25) and South Florida Bulls are set for a Thursday night showdown that’s less “Game of the Century” and more “Hope This Is Good Enough to Justify the Stadium Lights.” Let’s break this down with the precision of a college student on a 72-hour caffeine bender.

Parsing the Odds: Why the Spread Feels Like a Bet on Who’s Less Likely to Trip
Boise State is favored by 6 points (-6.0), with implied odds suggesting they’re a 69% favorite to win. South Florida, meanwhile, is a +500 underdog in moneyline terms (implied probability ~35%), which is about the same chance as me correctly spelling “spelled” on the first try. The total is set at 62.5 points, a number that seems optimistic if either defense has a functioning HVAC system.

The key stat? Boise’s SportsLine model projects a 38-23 Broncos win… but also admits it’ll cover the spread only 66% of the time. That’s the sports betting equivalent of saying, “I’ll probably show up to the party, but don’t count on me not pissing in the punch bowl.”

Injury Report: Ashton Jeanty’s Absence Feels Like Losing Your Favorite Spork
Boise State’s star running back, Ashton Jeanty (the human equivalent of a 401(k) that actually grows), is now an NFL dad, leaving the Broncos to rely on backup QB Maddux Madsen. Madsen’s strength? Running. His passing résumé? Let’s just say he’s not the guy you want throwing Hail Marys… unless you’re into that desperation, “I’ll take my chances with a 60-yard heave into the sun” vibe.

South Florida’s QB, Byrum Brown, is a dual-threat stud who set a school record with 3,000+ passing yards in 2023. But in 2024, he’s coming off injuries that made him look like a guy who just learned how to use a mouse. Coach Spencer Danielson called him “one of the best football players we’ll see all season,” which is either a masterclass in optimism or a reminder that coaches sometimes speak in riddles.

News Digest: Golesh’s Defense vs. Brown’s Circus Act
Boise’s defensive coordinator, Alex Golesh, has back-to-back bowl wins under his belt, which is impressive if your idea of a “bowl” is a literal bowl you eat cereal out of. Danielson praised Golesh’s “progress,” but let’s be real: defenses in college football are like Wi-Fi signals—everyone claims they’re strong, but when it matters, you’re just hoping for a buffer.

USF’s offense, meanwhile, is “the fastest team in the country,” per Danielson. That’s a compliment, but also a warning. Speed without precision is just a toddler with a chainsaw. Can Brown harness it? Or will he trip over his own cleats and gift Boise a touchdown? Only time will tell.

The Humor: Football Puns and Absurd Analogies
- Boise’s offense: Without Jeanty, it’s like ordering a steak dinner and getting a salad… but the salad has a tiny sign that says, “I tried.” Madsen’s legs will have to do the heavy lifting, which is fine if you’re okay with a game plan that’s 80% “gloom and doom” and 20% “here’s a running back named Sire—y’all just have to pronounce it like ‘sigh-ay,’ right?”
- USF’s defense: They’ll be tasked with slowing down Broncos’ running backs Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod, a duo that moves like they’re late to their own metaphor. If USF’s D looks overwhelmed, don’t worry—it’s just the collective sigh of every fan who’s ever yelled, “Why is this so boring?!” during a 3rd-and-12.
- The spread: At -6, Boise is basically being asked to win by “one touchdown minus a field goal.” It’s the sportsbook’s way of saying, “We think you’ll win, but also we think you’re just… barely.”

Prediction: Why Boise State Wins, But Doesn’t Exactly Win Big
Boise State’s experience, stronger coaching, and a running game that won’t turn into a highlight-reel fumble every other play give them the edge. The Broncos’ defense, while not elite, should suffocate Brown enough to keep USF’s offense from turning into a full-blown fireworks show.

Final Score Prediction: Boise State 27, South Florida 20.

Why? Because the model says so. Because Danielson’s “curiosity” as a coach is less “mysterious” and more “I’ve seen this film 47 times, and it’s bad.” And because if Madsen throws two picks, we’ll all be too busy laughing to care about the spread.

Bet: Take Boise -6, but only if you enjoy watching a team win by the slimmest margin of victory since a photo finish at a sloth race.

Created: Aug. 27, 2025, 2:30 a.m. GMT

Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.