Prediction: Borussia Dortmund VS Mamelodi Sundowns F.C. 2025-06-21
Witty Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs. Mamelodi Sundowns – A Tale of Two Time Zones and One Very Sad Underdog
The Setup
Borussia Dortmund, the Bundesliga’s most overpaid midfield (yes, even with Bellingham), faces Mamelodi Sundowns, South Africa’s most overachieving underdog. Dortmund, ranked third in UEFA, is here to flex their €100 million squad while recovering from a limp-and-a-half draw against Fluminense. Sundowns, meanwhile, are here to prove that a team from a league with fewer corporate sponsors than a college football stadium can still shock the world.
Key Stats & Odds
- Dortmund Implied Win Probability: 70-75% (odds: 1.37-1.43).
- Sundowns Implied Win Probability: 11-15% (odds: 6.75-8.0).
- Draw Implied Probability: 19-21%.
- Underdog Win Rate in Soccer: 41% (Sundowns’ odds are way below this, hinting at value… for masochists).
Injuries & Lineup Notes
- Dortmund’s midfield is a Jenga tower: Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck are out, leaving Julian Ryerson and Pascal Gross to… gasp… not die.
- Bellingham’s debut as a sub against Fluminense was a “meh” (0 goals, 1 assist, 1,000% of his salary). But he’ll start here, which is either a masterstroke or a “let’s see if he can run on fumes” experiment.
- Sundowns’ core from their 1-0 win over Ulsan HD returns, including Peter Shalulile, who’s been scoring goals like he’s auditioning for a Netflix documentary titled “The Peter Who Knew”.
Tactical Tease
Dortmund’s 4-2-3-1 formation (with Bellingham in midfield) is designed to suffocate teams. Sundowns’ 4-3-3? More like a 4-3-“hope for the best.” They’ll rely on counterattacks and the ghost of Tashreeq Matthews (a Dortmund youth product turned Sundowns hero) to haunt their former club.
Odds Expected Value (EV) Breakdown
1. Dortmund:
- Implied Win Probability: ~75%.
- Adjusted for Underdog Win Rate: 75% (no adjustment needed; they’re not the underdog).
- EV: (0.75 × 1.4) – 1 = +0.05 (slim but positive).
2. Sundowns:
- Implied Win Probability: ~12%.
- Adjusted for Soccer Underdog Rate: 41%.
- EV: (0.41 × 7.5) – 1 = +1.975 (insane value if they can pull off the 41% win rate).
3. Draw:
- Implied Probability: ~20%.
- Adjusted for Soccer Underdog Rate: No real adjustment (draws are neutral).
- EV: (0.2 × 4.8) – 1 = -0.04 (don’t bet on this unless you like disappointment).
The Split the Difference Dilemma
The user wants us to split the difference between calculated probability and underdog win rate. For Sundowns, that means:
- Calculated Implied Win Rate: 12%.
- Underdog Win Rate: 41%.
- Average: ~26.5%.
- EV at 26.5%: (0.265 × 7.5) – 1 = +0.9875 (still absurd value).
The Verdict
While Sundowns’ EV screams “bet on this,” Dortmund’s EV is more… reliable. Dortmund’s EV is +0.05, Sundowns’ is +0.99 (if you trust the underdog rate). But let’s not forget: Dortmund is a €500 million team missing two midfielders. Sundowns are a team that’s never won a Club World Cup match. The math says Sundowns are a steal, but the reality says Dortmund will win.
Best Bet: Dortmund (-1.25) @ 1.87
- Why: Dortmund’s EV is positive, and the -1.25 spread accounts for their margin of victory. Even if Sundowns hold them to a 1-0 win, Dortmund still covers.
- Rationale: Bellingham’s legs will eventually work, Sundowns’ defense is paper-thin, and Dortmund’s “overachieve” button is stuck on “achieve.”
Final Prediction
Dortmund 2-0 Sundowns. Sundowns will thank their Portuguese coach Miguel Cardoso for the tactical genius of… not playing Peter Shalulile in the 89th minute.
Broadcast Info: Catch the chaos on DAZN or Sat.1. If you’re in Cincinnati, bring a lawn chair and a sense of dread for Sundowns’ fans.
“The only thing more unlikely than Sundowns winning is Bellingham not scoring.” – Your Friendly Neighborhood Soccer Handicapper 🎲⚽
Created: June 21, 2025, 5:38 a.m. GMT