Prediction: Brandon Royval VS Joshua Van 2025-06-28
UFC 317: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van – A Tale of Two Tigers (and a Slight Edge)
By The MMA Oracle (aka Your Friendly Neighborhood Handicapper)
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The Setup
Joshua Van, the 23-year-old "Golden Boy" with a 6-1 UFC record and a chip on his shoulder, steps in on short notice to face Brandon Royval, a former flyweight title challenger (7-3 record) with a reputation for explosive finishes. Van, who initially called out Brandon Moreno, now gets his shot at the No. 1 contender spot—if he can outwit Royval. The UFC’s masterclass in narrative-building continues, but let’s cut through the hype with cold, hard numbers.
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The Numbers Game
- Van’s Odds: -118 (implied probability: 54.1%)
- Royval’s Odds: +102 (implied probability: 49.0%)
- Underdog Win Rate in MMA: 35%
Adjusted Probabilities (Splitting the Difference):
- Van: (54.1% + 65% historical favorite win rate)/2 = 59.6%
- Royval: (49.0% + 35% underdog win rate)/2 = 42.0%
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Van: (59.6% * 0.77 profit) - (42.0% * 1.00 loss) = +3.8% EV
- Royval: (42.0% * 1.10 profit) - (59.6% * 1.00 loss) = -13.2% EV
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Key Factors
1. Short Notice? Van’s on short notice, but his 6-1 UFC streak (including a TKO of Jussier Formiga) suggests he thrives under pressure. Royval, meanwhile, has faced high-level competition (e.g., Deiveson Figueiredo), but his last fight ended in a controversial loss to Alexandre Pantoja.
2. Style Matchup: Van claims Royval’s style is “predictable” and he’ll “outsmart” him. If true, this could tilt the fight toward Van’s favor.
3. UFC’s Narrative: The promotion is clearly backing Van for a title shot, which often translates to favorable matchups. Royval, however, is a former title challenger with nothing to lose.
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The Verdict
While Royval’s underdog status and 35% win rate make him tempting, the math tells a different story. Van’s +3.8% EV is a rare gem in MMA betting, where edges are often razor-thin. His recent form, youth, and the UFC’s narrative support a Van victory.
Best Bet: Joshua Van (-118)
- Why? The adjusted probability (59.6%) crushes the implied 54.1%, giving Van a clear edge.
- Method: Expect a decision win (Van’s wrestling) or late finish (Royval’s power).
The Undercard Pick: If you must take the underdog, Royval’s +102 line is a value bet if you believe the UFC is overrating Van. But don’t blame us when Van’s “Golden Boy” grin turns into a title shot celebration.
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Final Score Prediction: Van by decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“The UFC’s golden script meets reality. Again.” 🥊
Created: June 28, 2025, 6:10 p.m. GMT