Prediction: Brisbane Lions VS Carlton Blues 2025-07-10
Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Spread That’s Trying to Be a Joke)
The Setup
The Brisbane Lions, the AFL’s version of a caffeinated espresso, are favored to dominate the Carlton Blues in Round 17. The Lions, currently the league’s highest-scoring team, are priced at 1.25 (Bovada) and 1.27 (DraftKings), implying an 80% implied probability of victory. The Blues, meanwhile, are priced at 3.75 (Bovada) and 3.55 (DraftKings), suggesting they’re about as likely to win as a snowball in a sauna. The spread? A laughably lopsided -22.5/-23.5 for Brisbane, with the Blues getting +22.5/+23.5. That line is so steep, it makes a rollercoaster look like a hill.
Key Stats & Context
- Brisbane Lions: Highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 95 points per game. Their offense is so potent, they could probably score in their sleep while wearing mittens.
- Carlton Blues: 5-10 record, on a four-game losing streak, and playing like they’ve forgotten how to pass a footy. Their defense? A sieve with a PhD in chaos.
- Injuries: No major injuries reported for either team, which is surprising. The Blues might be hoping for a miracle, but miracles usually cost extra.
Odds Breakdown
- Brisbane Lions (Moneyline): Implied probability of 80% (from 1.25 decimal odds).
- Carlton Blues (Moneyline): Implied probability of 26.67% (from 3.75 decimal odds).
- Spread: Implied probability of 53.48% (from 1.87 odds for either side).
Expected Value & Underdog Rates
Since AFL isn’t listed in the provided underdog win rates, we’ll assume it’s somewhere between soccer (41%) and NCAA basketball (26%). Let’s split the difference and ballpark it at 33%.
- Brisbane Moneyline:
- Implied probability (80%) vs. underdog rate (33%).
- Expected Value (EV) = (0.8 * 1.25) - (0.2 * 1) = +0.80.
- Carlton Moneyline:
- Implied probability (26.67%) vs. underdog rate (33%).
- EV = (0.2667 * 3.75) - (0.7333 * 1) ≈ -0.08.
- Brisbane Spread (-23.5):
- Implied probability (53.48%) vs. underdog rate (33%).
- EV = (0.5348 * 1.87) - (0.4652 * 1) ≈ +0.53.
The Verdict
While the Brisbane Lions moneyline has the highest EV, the spread is a close second. However, the spread line (-23.5) is so aggressive that even a modest upset (e.g., a 15-point win) would see the Lions fail to cover. Given the Lions’ offensive firepower and the Blues’ defensive incompetence, the Brisbane Lions -23.5 is the smarter play.
Final Prediction
Brisbane Lions -23.5 (-110)
Why? Because the Lions are scoring like it’s their job (it is), and the Blues are playing like they’re on a team-building retreat. The spread is a joke, but if the Lions cover, you’ll feel like a genius. If they don’t? At least you’ll have a good story for the office.
Bonus: Stream the game for free on Kayo’s trial. If you’re not already a Lions fan, this match might change that. Or at least make you appreciate why the Blues need a new coach.
Created: July 6, 2025, 8:37 a.m. GMT