Prediction: Brisbane Lions VS Geelong Cats 2025-06-20
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions: A Tale of Two Tigers (One is Geelong)
By Your Friendly Neighborhood AFL Handicapper (Who Also Knows Math)
The Setup:
Geelong, riding a 5-game winning streak, hosts the Brisbane Lions in a match that’s less of a contest and more of a "Brisbane’s 13th Consecutive Loss in This Stadium" ceremony. Captain Patrick Dangerfield aims to cap his 350th career game with a win, while Brisbane, the 2024 Premiers, have lost 2 of their last 5 and look like they’ve forgotten how to win since their post-championship hangover began.
The Odds (Because Numbers Don’t Lie… Usually):
- DraftKings H2H: Brisbane @ 1.08 (92.59% implied), Geelong @ 7.0 (14.29% implied).
- Bovada H2H: Brisbane @ 1.26 (79.37%), Geelong @ 3.65 (27.4%).
- Spreads: Brisbane -25.5 (DraftKings) / -13.5 (Bovada).
The Math (Because We’re Not Just Here for the Jokes):
1. Implied Probabilities:
- Brisbane’s average implied win probability: 85.98%.
- Geelong’s average implied win probability: 20.85%.
- Total vig across both books: ~6.8% (DraftKings) and ~6.8% (Bovada).
2. Underdog Win Rate Adjustment:
- AFL isn’t on the user’s underdog list, but let’s assume it’s closer to soccer/hockey/baseball (41%) than MMA (35%).
- Split the difference between Geelong’s 20.85% implied and 41% historical underdog rate:
(20.85% + 41%) / 2 = 30.93% adjusted probability.
3. Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Betting on Geelong @ DraftKings (7.0 odds):
EV = (30.93% * 7) - (69.07% * 1) = 2.165 - 0.691 = +1.474 (Positive EV!).
- Betting on Geelong @ Bovada (3.65 odds):
EV = (30.93% * 3.65) - (69.07% * 1) = 1.128 - 0.691 = +0.437 (Still positive, but less juicy).
The Verdict (Because You’re Paying Me to Sound Confident):
- Best Bet: Geelong (+25.5) at DraftKings (7.0 odds).
- Why? The bookmakers have priced Brisbane as if they’re invincible, but Geelong’s 5-game streak, home dominance (13-game losing streak for Brisbane here), and Dangerfield’s 350th-game motivation make this a classic "overpriced favorite" trap.
- The spread of -25.5 for Brisbane is laughable. Even if Brisbane wins, they’ll likely do so by 13.5 points or less (Bovada’s line), making Geelong’s +13.5 spread a safer play.
The Sarcasm (Because You Knew This Was Coming):
- Brisbane’s 2024 Premiership is now a distant memory, like a bad Tinder photo.
- Dangerfield’s 350th game is a reminder that time flies, but so does Brisbane’s offense.
- If Brisbane wins this, the AFL should just cancel the season and start over.
Final Score Prediction (Because I’m Not a Handicapper, I’m a Prophet):
Geelong 78, Brisbane 65. Dangerfield scores 3 goals, Brisbane’s coach blames the ref, and the Lions’ 14-game losing streak in this stadium hits 14.
Watch It Live: Fox Footy (504) or Kayo (6:30pm AEST). Don’t miss the post-game interview where Dangerfield will probably cry into his beer.
Note: All stats and odds are current as of 2025-06-20. No guarantees, but I did the math. Probably. 🏈
Created: June 20, 2025, 11:26 a.m. GMT