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Prediction: Central Arkansas Bears VS Missouri Tigers 2025-08-28

Missouri vs. Central Arkansas: A Tale of Two Bears (One with Better Dentists)
The 2025 season kicks off with a clash of Bears—Missouri and Central Arkansas—though only one deserves to be called a “bear of burden.” Thursday night’s opener pits Missouri’s 10-3 Tigers (yes, Bears is their second name, but let’s not get bogged down in semantics) against Central Arkansas’ 6-6 squad, who might as well be called the “Bears Who Couldn’t.” Let’s dissect this matchup with the precision of a QB rating and the humor of a pun-filled press box.

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Parse the Odds: Why Missouri’s Spread is Less “Mythic” Than It Sounds
The bookmakers have Missouri as a 36.5-point favorite, with decimal odds hovering around 1.87-1.91 for the Tigers. For context, that implies a ~51% chance of winning (using decimal odds: 1 / 1.91 ≈ 52.3%). Meanwhile, Central Arkansas’ +36.5 line gives them a ~50% implied chance, which is… generous.

Statistically, Missouri’s defense is a fortress: 20.4 points allowed per game vs. Central Arkansas’ 27.5. On offense, Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy (1,351 rushing yards, 13 TDs) and Kevin Coleman (932 receiving yards, 6 TDs) form a duo as reliable as a vending machine. Central Arkansas’ Caleb Kroger? He passed for 489 yards last season but with a 54.2% completion rate—which, in QB terms, is like trying to parallel park in a hurricane.

The total line sits at 51.5 points, with the Over/Under priced evenly. Given Missouri’s defense and Central Arkansas’ porous one, this feels like a “bait and switch” line—bookmakers probably know the Under is the real play here.

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Digest the News: QB Drama, But Not the Kind You Want
Missouri’s QB competition between Beau Pribula (74.3% completion rate at Penn State) and Sam Horn is the only drama here. Coach Eli Drinkwitz insists it “won’t spill into Week 2,” which is code for, “We’ll settle this with a game film duel and a coin toss.” Meanwhile, Central Arkansas’ Kroger is entering Year 2 with the same urgency as a sloth on a trampoline.

Central Arkansas’ offense averages 31.8 points per game, but their defense? It’s like a sieve that’s been sieved. Missouri’s defense, meanwhile, is the reason their 2024 schedule looked like a mercy mission (10-3 record, 27-24 bowl win over Iowa).

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Humorous Spin: Football, But Make It a Circus
Let’s be real: Missouri’s defense is a former circus acrobat who once caught a flaming hoop while juggling chainsaws. Central Arkansas’ offense? A toaster in a bakery—present, but destined to burn everything.

Ahmad Hardy’s 1,351 rushing yards last season? That’s enough to run a marathon… and still have energy to finish second in a sprint. Kroger’s 54.2% completion rate? That’s what you’d expect if you tried to pass a basketball through a hoop with a garden hose.

And let’s not forget the QB competition. Pribula vs. Horn? Sounds like a battle of “Which bear is less likely to eat your homework?” Missouri fans, meanwhile, are just hoping their team doesn’t play like the Bears from The Jungle Book—you know, the ones who tried to eat Mowgli but kept missing.

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Prediction: Missouri Wins, But Not Because Central Arkansas is Good at Football
Missouri’s defense will suffocate Central Arkansas’ offense, and their offense will methodically pick apart a secondary that allows 370.3 yards per game. The Tigers’ 36.5-point spread feels steep, but if Missouri’s defense lives up to its reputation, they’ll win by 30-37 points, making the Under on the 51.5 total a sneaky value (low-scoring game, high-defense glory).

Final Verdict: Bet Missouri (-36.5) and the Under 51.5. Why? Because Central Arkansas’ Bears are more likely to hibernate than execute a two-minute drill.

And remember, folks—if Missouri loses, it’s because they’re saving their energy for the Border War against Kansas. No shame in that game plan. 🐻💥

Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 10:10 a.m. GMT

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