Prediction: Charles Oliveira VS Ilia Topuria 2025-06-29
UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – A Tale of Power vs. Experience
By The MMA Oracle (aka Your Uncle Who Still Thinks Royce Gracie is the GOAT)
The Setup:
Ilia Topuria (-500) enters UFC 317 as the prohibitive favorite, a 16-0 phenom with the ground game of a grizzled veteran and the punch of a man who’s been to the gym once and hit a heavy bag like it owes him rent. Charles Oliveira (+385), the former two-division champion, is the “villain” here—despite 31 finishes in the UFC, he’s the guy who “gets hit a lot.” Spoiler: That’s not a flaw; it’s a feature when you’re a finisher.
The Numbers Game:
- Topuria’s Edge: 89% takedown defense (elite), 6.3 strikes landed per minute (punchy), and a 100% finish rate in 16 pro fights.
- Oliveira’s Edge: 19.6% takedown success (he’ll try to grapple his way out of this), 31 career finishes (including 19 KOs/TKOs), and a 63% finish rate in his last 10 fights.
Injuries/Updates:
No major injuries reported. Topuria’s takedown defense is still a fortress; Oliveira’s chin? A work in progress.
Odds Breakdown:
- Topuria’s Implied Probability: -500 → 83.3% (bookmakers think he’s a sure thing).
- Oliveira’s Implied Probability: +385 → 20.6% (bookmakers think he’s a long shot).
- Underdog Win Rate Adjustment (MMA = 35%):
- Split the difference between Oliveira’s 20.6% and 35% → 28.3% adjusted win chance.
- Expected Value (EV) for Oliveira: (28.3% * $3.85 profit) - (71.7% * $1 loss) = +24.7% EV.
The Verdict:
While Topuria’s resume screams “champion,” Oliveira’s +385 line is a statistical anomaly. The math says Oliveira is undervalued. Why? Because bookmakers fear Topuria’s power but underestimate Oliveira’s finishing prowess.
Best Bet: Charles Oliveira (+385)
- Why? The EV is sky-high (+24.7%), and Oliveira’s 31 finishes in the UFC suggest he’ll capitalize on any opening. Topuria’s takedown defense neutralizes Oliveira’s ground game, but Oliveira’s experience in high-stakes fights (e.g., his 2023 comeback win over Beneil Dariush) gives him a psychological edge.
Final Prediction:
Topuria will out-strike Oliveira and win by decision… but the smart money is on Oliveira to shock the world. After all, the man who once fought twice in one day is nothing if not a chaos magnet.
Place your bets, then send this to your MMA-ignorant friend who still thinks Conor McGregor is a real threat. 🥊🔥
Created: June 20, 2025, 2:14 p.m. GMT