Prediction: Chicago Bears VS Minnesota Vikings 2025-11-16

Vikings vs. Bears: A Rematch of Ankle Sprains and Deflated Balloons

The Minnesota Vikings (4-5) and Chicago Bears (6-3) reunite in Week 11 for a rematch of their Week 1 thriller, where the Vikings’ fourth-quarter surge—led by rookie QB J.J. McCarthy’s Hail Mary act—secured a 27-24 victory. This time, the Vikings are favored by 2.5 points, but let’s not call it a cakewalk. After all, this is a team that’s gone 3-5 since McCarthy’s return from a sprained ankle, including a performance against the Ravens so riddled with penalties (13, including eight false starts) it made a traffic cop blush.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Toes
The Vikings’ implied probability of victory (60.6%) vs. the Bears’ (43.5%) suggests the model sees Minnesota as the safer bet, but the SportsLine Projection Model thinks the Bears have a 49% chance to win—value at +1022 odds, if you’re into gambling your life savings on a team that’s lost six of their last eight spreads. Meanwhile, the Under (48.5 points) is favored in 60% of simulations, which makes sense: The Bears’ defense, now missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon (think of them as the team’s human vaulting poles—gone), might be leakier than a sieve, but the Vikings’ offense is… creative.

News Digest: Injuries, Frustrations, and Metaphors
Let’s start with the Bears. They’re missing not just defenders (T.J. Edwards and Jaquan Brisker didn’t practice all week) but also any semblance of a functional secondary. It’s like asking a sieve to hold water while a toddler with a water gun stands nearby. Head coach Ben Johnson claims the team’s “improved” since Week 1—specifically, their “offensive line cohesion.” Let’s take that as code for “we’ve stopped throwing the ball into the stands.”

The Vikings? They’re a team of contradictions. McCarthy, who looked like a seasoned veteran in his debut (two fourth-quarter TDs, a rushing score), has since returned to the NFL equivalent of a first-year driver: promising but prone to sudden swerves. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson, usually a man possessed by the spirit of Jerry Rice, is frustrated, calling for a return to his “old self” and an “eff it” mentality. Translated: “I need to stop dropping passes and start treating this like a game of keep away from the Bears’ defense.”

Humorous Spin: The Absurdity of It All
The Bears’ defense is like a deflated balloon animal at a party—everyone’s still there, but no one’s holding their shape. Without their top corners and linebackers, they’re relying on “enthusiasm” to stop the Vikings’ offense. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offensive line is like a group of penguins trying to build an igloo: well-intentioned but prone to collapse under pressure.

And let’s not forget the weather. Minneapolis in November is a frozen tundra where even the coffee orders are in Fahrenheit. The Bears, traveling from Chicago’s relative warmth (i.e., 32°F with a 10 mph wind), might as well be playing in a snow globe. Their running game, which has improved “significantly,” could turn into a game of sledding if the Vikings’ defense doesn’t respect the elements.

Prediction: A Victory, but Not a Victory Lap
The Vikings win this one, but not because they’re flawless. They’ll win because the Bears’ defense is a house of cards in a hurricane, and Minnesota’s home-field advantage (read: the Bears’ QB slipping on the ice during halftime) will tilt the scale. Look for a low-scoring affair (Under 48.5 points) where the Vikings’ defense, despite all their flaws, makes a few boneheaded Bears mistakes.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 17.

Bet on the Vikings, but only if you’re willing to forgive them for looking like they’re playing with one hand tied behind their back. And if you back the Bears? Well, +2.5 is a nice line for a team that’s basically fielding a “B” squad. May the odds be ever in your favor, and may your popcorn never pop during the fourth quarter.

Created: Nov. 16, 2025, 12:40 p.m. GMT

Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.