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Prediction: Chicago Bulls VS Toronto Raptors 2025-07-11

Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls NBA Summer League 2025: A Data-Driven Jab at the Odds

Key Statistics & Context
- Toronto Raptors: Fresh off signing Alijah Martin (14.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG in college) and bolstered by fellow Gators alums like Walter Clayton Jr. (20-point Summer League game) and Will Richard (16-point outing), the Raptors’ Summer League squad is a veritable Gators reunion. Their depth in scoring and rebounding gives them a tactical edge.
- Chicago Bulls: Rely on Josh Primo, a former Alabama standout, but lack standout stats from their roster. The Bulls’ Summer League team is a mix of prospects and unproven talent, with no standout performances highlighted.

Injuries/Updates
No significant injuries reported for either team. Summer League rosters are typically light on NBA stars, so depth and development are the focus.

Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
Using Fanatics’ H2H odds (Raptors -1.37, Bulls +3.15):
- Implied Probabilities:
- Raptors: 1 / 1.37 ≈ 72.99%
- Bulls: 1 / 3.15 ≈ 31.75%

• Adjusted Probabilities (per NBA’s 32% underdog win rate):
  - Raptors (favorite): Split between implied (72.99%) and favorite win rate (68%).
  Adjusted = (72.99% + 68%) / 2 = 70.5%
  - Bulls (underdog): Split between implied (31.75%) and underdog rate (32%).
  Adjusted = (31.75% + 32%) / 2 = 31.88%

• EV Analysis:
  - Raptors: Adjusted (70.5%) < Implied (72.99%) → Negative EV.
  - Bulls: Adjusted (31.88%) > Implied (31.75%) → Slight Positive EV.

Why Bet the Bulls?
While the Raptors are a heavy favorite on paper, their adjusted probability (70.5%) is slightly lower than the implied 72.99%, suggesting the line is overpriced. The Bulls, though underdogs, have a 0.13% edge in EV due to the NBA’s historical 32% underdog win rate. It’s a razor-thin edge, but in sports betting, even a sliver of optimism is better than a brick wall of overconfidence.

The Verdict
Take the Chicago Bulls (+315 or +3.15). It’s a long shot, but Summer League is where underdogs like Walter Clayton Jr. (20-point games) and Will Richard (16-point games) thrive. The Raptors’ Gators posse is flashy, but history favors the slightly overlooked.

Final Thought
As the Gators’ coach might say: “When life gives you lemons, draft Alijah Martin and hope for a 32% miracle.” 🏀🔥

Note: This analysis assumes Summer League performance trends align with NBA underdog rates. No guarantees, but hey, that’s sports betting.

Created: July 11, 2025, 2:26 p.m. GMT

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