Prediction: Chicago Cubs VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-09-20
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: A Tale of Two Tomorrows
The Chicago Cubs (88-65) and Cincinnati Reds (77-76) clash on September 20, 2025, in a game that’s less “thriller” and more “thunderdome of mediocrity.” Let’s parse the stats, news, and absurdity to determine who’ll come out on top.
Parse the Odds: A Numbers Game
The Cubs are listed at -112 (implied probability: 52.88%), while the Reds are +107 underdogs (48.08%). Wait, hold on—how is Cincinnati even close to a favorite? Oh, right, the Reds’ 48.8% win rate as underdogs is better than most teams’ entire seasons. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ 63.6% success as favorites suggests they’re the MLB’s version of a vending machine: reliable, if unexciting.
Key stat: The Cubs hit 205 home runs (7th in MLB), while the Reds slug just 153 (24th). That’s a 52-homer gap—enough to fill a minor league stadium. The Reds’ offense averages 4.5 runs per game, while the Cubs’ 4.9-run average is like the difference between a sneeze and a hurricane.
Pitching? Both staffs have a similar WHIP (1.185 vs. 1.236), but the Cubs’ 3.80 ERA edges out Cincinnati’s 3.95. Javier Assad (4.23 ERA, 15 K in 27⅔ IP) starts for Chicago, while Zack Littell (9-8, 3.86 ERA) toes the rubber for the Reds. Assad’s recent relief appearance (2⅓ innings vs. Tampa Bay) is like asking a toddler to drive a school bus—technically possible, but not ideal.
Digest the News: Injuries, Recent Games, and Existential Crises
The Reds’ recent 1-0 win over the Cubs was a masterclass in “how to win without looking like you care.” Hunter Greene pitched 9.0 innings, struck out 9, and made the Cubs look like they’d forgotten how to swing. It’s the baseball equivalent of a librarian quieting a riot.
For the Cubs, Assad’s transition from starter to reliever and back again is like a confused chameleon—unpredictable and slightly concerning. Their offense, led by Nico Hoerner (.301 BA) and Seiya Suzuki (27 HR), is a mix of “consistent” and “explosive.” Meanwhile, the Reds’ Elly De La Cruz (19 HR, 82 RBI) is their lone offensive spark, which is like lighting a campfire in a thunderstorm—brave, but not exactly practical.
Humorous Spin: Absurd Analogies and Punishment Puns
The Cubs’ pitching staff is like a Swiss watch—precise, reliable, and occasionally overpriced. Their offense? A home-run machine that also doubles as a popcorn popper. The Reds, on the other hand, are the MLB’s version of a “meh” emoji. Their 4.5-run average is so low, you’d think they’re playing in a wind tunnel where every ball gets sucked into a black hole.
Zack Littell’s 9-8 record is like a seesaw made of Jell-O—technically balanced, but impossible to trust. And let’s not forget the Reds’ defense, which has a WHIP (1.236) so high, it could double as a ladder for their struggling offense.
Prediction: The Cubs Win, But Not Without Drama
While the Reds’ 48.8% underdog success rate is admirable, the Cubs’ 63.6% favorite win rate is like a caffeine addict at 3 a.m.—relentless. Their superior home-run power (205 vs. 153) and better ERA (3.80 vs. 3.95) give them a statistical edge. Plus, Assad’s 4.23 ERA isn’t great, but it’s good enough to keep the Reds’ anemic offense in check.
Final Verdict: Bet on the Cubs (-112) to win a low-scoring, pitcher’s duel. The Reds might nibble at the edges, but Chicago’s depth and power will prevail—unless Hunter Greene’s ghost haunts them again.
“The Cubs are the toast of the league, and the Reds? They’re just the crumbs on the plate.”
Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 5:15 p.m. GMT