Prediction: Chicago Cubs VS New York Yankees 2025-07-11
Yankees vs. Cubs: A Data-Driven Jab at the "Curse of the Bambino"
The New York Yankees (-190) host the Chicago Cubs (+200) in a slugfest that’s less “thriller” and more “home run derby with a side of caffeine.” Let’s break this down with the precision of a MLB umpire and the humor of a sportsbook clerk who’s seen it all.
Key Statistics: The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly)
- Yankees:
- 51-41 overall, 65.4% win rate as -190+ favorites.
- League-leading 145 HRs. Aaron Judge (.360, 34 HRs) is the human embodiment of “swing for the fences.”
- Carlos Rodon (3.30 ERA) has the ERA of a man who’s mastered the art of “almost perfect.”
- Cubs:
- 55-38 overall but a paltry 35.7% win rate as underdogs.
- 139 HRs (3rd in MLB), but their offense relies on Seiya Suzuki’s “I’ll hit a HR even if it’s a knuckleball” attitude.
- Chris Flexen makes his first start of the season—think of it as a “surprise birthday party” for his arm.
Recent Trends: The Yankees win 58.5% of games as favorites, while the Cubs’ underdog struggles (35.7%) suggest they’re the MLB’s answer to a “buy low” stock pick.
Injuries/Updates: No Drama, Just Data
No major injuries reported for either team. Flexen’s first start is the only wildcard—think of it as a pitcher’s version of “first date nerves.” The Yankees’ depth (Judge, Bellinger) ensures they’ll likely outslug the Cubs even if Rodon falters.
Odds Breakdown: Math Over Hope
Moneyline Implied Probabilities:
- Yankees (-190): 190 / (190 + 100) = 65.4% implied chance to win.
- Cubs (+200): 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.3% implied chance to win.
EV Calculations (MLB Underdog Win Rate = 41%):
- Underdog Adjustment (Cubs): (33.3% + 41%) / 2 = 37.15% adjusted win probability.
- Favorite Adjustment (Yankees): (65.4% + 59%) / 2 = 62.2% adjusted win probability.
EV Comparison:
- Yankees: Implied 65.4% vs. Adjusted 62.2% → Negative EV.
- Cubs: Implied 33.3% vs. Adjusted 37.15% → Positive EV.
Betting Strategy: Why the Cubs Are the Smart Play
Despite the odds, the Cubs offer value. Their 37.15% adjusted win rate > 33.3% implied probability means the line underestimates their chances. The Yankees’ “strong as favorites” stat (65.4% win rate) is enticing, but their adjusted EV (62.2%) is still lower than their implied probability—classic favorite overpricing.
Spread/Totals Note: The -1.5 spread for the Yankees is tight. With both teams averaging 9 runs (total line: 9.0), the Over is tempting, but the Cubs’ shaky underdog record makes the Yankees’ spread a safer play if you’re not betting the moneyline.
Final Verdict: Bet the Cubs (+200)
Yes, the Cubs are the underdog. But in MLB, underdogs win 41% of the time—and the math says they’re undervalued here. The Yankees’ home-run artillery is real, but Flexen’s first start and the Cubs’ explosive offense (139 HRs) give them a fighting chance.
Prediction: Cubs win 6-5 in 10 innings. Why? Because baseball is weird, and sometimes the “buy low” strategy pays off.
EV Summary:
- Cubs: 37.15% chance to win vs. 33.3% implied → +3.85% edge.
- Yankees: 62.2% vs. 65.4% → -3.2% edge.
Take the Cubs at +200. If they win, tell your friends you “knew the math.” If they lose? Blame the “Curse of the Bambino” and your betting app’s autocorrect.
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Data as of July 11, 2025. Implied probabilities and EV calculations based on provided odds. No actual curses were harmed in the making of this analysis.
Created: July 11, 2025, 5:46 a.m. GMT