Prediction: Chicago Cubs VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-09-15
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: A Tale of Two Innings (and a Lot of Cub Dominance)
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates meet in Pittsburgh for the final time in 2025, and if this were a Shakespearean play, the Cubs would be the confident nobleman, while the Pirates are the nobleman’s eccentric cousin who keeps tripping over the rug and asking if the play’s over yet. Let’s break this down with the precision of a MLB umpire and the humor of a ballpark hotdog vendor who’s seen it all.
Parsing the Odds: Why the Cubs Are the Favorite (But Not Too Favorite)
The Cubs enter as a 1.5-run favorite (-150) with implied odds of 60% to win, while the Pirates are priced at +200 (40% implied). The total runs line sits at 8.0, with slightly better value on the Under. These numbers scream “Cubs win a low-scoring game,” which makes sense given the context.
Key stats:
- Cubs’ offense: Hitting .236 with a .391 slugging percentage over their last 10 games, including 11 home runs. Nico Hoerner is a wizard with a bat (.410 BA), and Ian Happ is swinging like he’s auditioning for a Disney Channel sports movie (three HRs in 10 games).
- Pirates’ offense: A tragic comedy. .191 BA, last in MLB for runs scored, and Spencer Horwitz’s .296 average is the team’s lone bright spot—like a single functioning lightbulb in a blackout.
- Pitching: The Cubs’ staff has a 3.74 ERA in their last 10 games, but opponents have clobbered them for 13 HRs. The Pirates’ 3.86 ERA is elite, but their pitchers have allowed just six HRs in the same span—thanks to a bullpen that’s mastered the art of the groundout.
News Roundup: Injuries, Rotations, and Why Ashcraft Might Be Tired
- Cubs starter Jameson Taillon: 4.15 ERA on the season, but his last three starts were a mixed bag (4⅓ innings vs. Atlanta, 4 ER). He’s like a vintage car—reliable in theory, but you never know if it’ll sputter or soar.
- Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft: The former reliever is returning to the rotation after a six-man rotation shuffle. He’s got a sparkling 2.47 ERA in his last six starts, but he’s already thrown 32.2 more innings this year than last. The Pirates are treating him like a delicate soufflé—bake slowly, or it collapses.
- Pirates’ offense: They’ve hit five HRs in 10 games. Their best hitter, Jared Triolo, has a .282 BA—but that’s relative. It’s like saying a wet noodle is “hydrated.”
The Humor: Because Sports Needs Laughs
The Pirates’ offense is so anemic, it’d make a vampire blush. Imagine their lineup at the plate:
- First batter: Spencer Horwitz, swinging for the fences… and mostly missing.
- Third batter: Jared Triolo, who’s hit a triple but seems to have forgotten how to cross second base.
- Cleanup: A guy who’s batting .191 but is very confident in his Instagram stories.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ lineup is like a well-oiled Batmobile—sleek, powerful, and occasionally prone to hitting home runs off their own bullpen (see: those 13 HR allowed).
As for Ashcraft, the Pirates are managing his workload like a toddler’s nap schedule. “Braxton needs rest! He’s been so busy throwing 32 extra innings! Can’t we just let the Cubs score 10 runs already?!”
Prediction: Cubs Win, But Not Without Drama
The Cubs’ edge comes from their balanced attack and the Pirates’ offensive futility. While Taillon isn’t at his best, the Pirates’ lineup can’t capitalize on mistakes—even a 4.15 ERA looks manageable against a team that’s hit five home runs in nine games.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 4, Pirates 2.
Why?
- The Cubs’ bats will chip away at Ashcraft, who’s still adjusting to the rotation.
- The Pirates’ pitching can’t offset their lack of offense.
- The Under 8.0 total is likely, as both staffs prioritize groundouts over fireworks.
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 at +220 implied value (if you can find it).
In conclusion, this game is less of a contest and more of a masterclass in why the Cubs are NL Central kings. The Pirates, meanwhile, are here to trip over their own shoelaces and ask, “Is the game over yet?”
Tip your waiters, bet wisely, and may your lineups slug higher than .191. đźŽâšľ
Created: Sept. 15, 2025, 11:32 a.m. GMT