Prediction: Chicago Cubs VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-09-17

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: A Low-Scoring Showdown Where the Underdog (Literally) Struggles to Stay Upright

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Batting Average That Can’t Find Its Bat
Let’s start with the pitching matchup, because in baseball, it’s often the difference between a game and a nap. The Pirates’ Paul Skenes is a 21st-century enigma: a right-hander with a 1.92 ERA who’s won 4 of his last 5 starts. Sounds great, right? Too bad his team’s offense is about as threatening as a toddler with a plastic fork. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in MLB batting average and last in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ Cade Horton has been a post-All-Star break cyborg, sporting a 0.84 ERA, allowing just 28 hits in 53.1 innings, and giving up four or fewer hits in nine of his last 10 starts. He even shut out the Pirates for 5.2 innings earlier this season, making them look like they’d forgotten how to swing a bat.

The moneyline odds tell a similar story. The Cubs are favored at -120 to -150 range (decimal: ~1.65), implying a 61% implied probability of victory. The Pirates, at +230 to +234 (decimal: ~2.3), suggest bookmakers think they have a 31-33% chance to pull off a shocker. For context, that’s about the same odds as correctly guessing a stranger’s Spotify Wrapped genre on the first try.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Wild Pitches, and a Home Run That Almost Broke the Internet
The Cubs’ recent 4-0 win over the Pirates on September 16 was a masterclass in efficiency. They produced nine hits, scored in six different innings, and even had a wild pitch score a run—because nothing says “dominance” like making your opponent’s mistakes work for you. Michael Busch launched a 418-foot homer, Nico Hoerner turned a wild pitch into a run, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is one home run away from joining the 30-30 club. But here’s the catch: All this happened without Kyle Tucker, whose absence has been like trying to build a sandwich without the bread. The Cubs’ offense is down a dimension without their All-Star outfielder, who’s been sidelined since September 2 with a calf injury. Manager Craig Counsell hinted pregame that Tucker isn’t ready, which is baseball code for “we’re probably not hitting 10 runs tonight.”

The Pirates, meanwhile, are the definition of “punching above their weight class but still losing to the toddler in the ring.” Skenes is优秀, but his team has scored more runs in a game than they have in a month. Their entire season is a tragicomedy of “We have a good pitcher!” followed by “Wait, how do you tie your shoelaces?”

Humorous Spin: When Offenses Go to Sleep and Pitchers Take the Spotlight
Imagine a boxing match where both fighters agree to a dance-off instead. That’s this game. The Cubs’ offense is a car missing a cylinder, sputtering but still moving forward. The Pirates’ offense? A cylinder missing a car. Horton vs. Skenes is like watching two magicians perform—except one is pulling rabbits out of hats, and the other is politely asking the audience if they brought snacks.

The total runs line is set at 8.0, with the Under favored at -120. Given that the Cubs scored 4 runs in their last game against Pittsburgh and the Pirates managed 0, this feels like betting that a sloth will finish a marathon before a human. The Cubs’ offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but Horton’s been so good, he could probably pitch a no-hitter while texting his mom.

Prediction: The Cubs Win, Because Even a Blindfolded Golfer Can Out-Hit a Sleepwalking Snail
Putting it all together: The Cubs have the better starter, a slightly better offense (even without Tucker), and a history of making the Pirates look like they’re playing baseball for the first time. Horton’s post-All-Star dominance and Skenes’ lack of run support collide in a game that’ll make fans reach for the popcorn and a second cup of coffee.

Final Verdict: Chicago Cubs 3, Pittsburgh Pirates 1. Bet the Cubs (-1.5) if you’re feeling spicy, but the safest play is the Under 8.0 runs—because watching these two teams try to score is like waiting for a glacier to text you back.

And if you’re wondering why the Pirates are still in the game? Consider it a public service—they’re the human equivalent of a “loading” screen in a video game. Keep it on for ambiance.

Created: Sept. 17, 2025, 3:10 a.m. GMT

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