Prediction: Chicago Sky VS Minnesota Lynx 2025-07-06
WNBA Showdown: Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx – A Tale of Two Teams (and One Very Confused Bookmaker)
The Setup:
The Chicago Sky, reeling from the ACL tear of star guard Courtney Vandersloot and now without center Kamilla Cardoso (playing for Brazil in the FIBA AmeriCup), host the Minnesota Lynx in a game that’s as much about math as it is basketball. The Lynx, fresh off two wins and riding their home-court advantage at Target Center, are favored by 14-14.5 points. But let’s not let the odds fool us—this is a classic case of the bookmakers overcorrecting.
The Numbers Game:
- Implied Probabilities (Decimal Odds):
- Chicago Sky: 12.5% (8.0 decimal)
- Minnesota Lynx: 91.7% (1.09 decimal)
- Underdog Win Rate (WNBA): 32%
- EV Calculation:
- Sky’s EV: 32% (actual) vs. 12.5% (implied) = +19.5% edge
- Lynx’s EV: 68% (actual) vs. 91.7% (implied) = -23.7% edge
Key Factors:
1. Cardoso’s Absence: The Sky’s interior defense and rebounding take a hit without her, but they’ve managed to stay competitive in her absence. Their last two games without her? A 78-75 loss to the Storm and an 82-79 win over the Sun. Not great, but not catastrophic.
2. Lynx’s Form: Minnesota’s 2-0 streak is impressive, but their defense has been leaky (105.3 PPG allowed). The Sky’s offense, despite Vandersloot’s injury, is still 5th in the league in points per game (98.4).
3. Total Points: The line is 160-161.5, but the Lynx’s defense (103.2 PPG allowed) and the Sky’s struggles without Vandersloot suggest a low-scoring affair. Under 160.5 is a solid play.
The Verdict:
While the Lynx are the obvious choice on paper, the Chicago Sky at +8.0 offer a tantalizing +EV opportunity. Bookmakers have priced them as a 12.5% chance, but the historical underdog win rate (32%) suggests they’re undervalued. It’s a long shot, but in sports betting, long shots with positive EV are the ones that keep the dreamers awake at night.
Best Bet:
- Chicago Sky (+8.0) – The math says “no,” but the EV says “yes.” Take the underdog.
- Under 160.5 Points (-110) – The Lynx’s porous defense and Sky’s offensive hiccups make this a no-brainer.
Final Thought:
The Lynx are the team to root for, but the Sky are the team to bet on. After all, what’s a game without a little chaos? And let’s be honest—betting on the 8.0 underdog is just a chance to flex your “I told you so” muscles when the Lynx stumble.
“The Lynx are favored to win, but the Sky are favored to make you money. Embrace the chaos.” 🏀✨
Created: July 6, 2025, 5:09 p.m. GMT