Prediction: Chicago White Sox VS Colorado Rockies 2025-07-04
The Fourth of July Fireworks Showdown: Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Where underdogs go to cry, and favorites go to... also cry?
The Setup
The Chicago White Sox (28-58) and Colorado Rockies (20-67) are two teams that have mastered the art of "showing up to the wrong party." Both are mired in rebuilds, but on July 4, 2025, they’ll clash at Coors Field, where the Rockies’ ERA of 5.51 (30th in MLB) will likely be roasted by the altitude. The White Sox, armed with the lowest slugging percentage (.343) and fewest home runs (66) in MLB, are still favored (-124) to win. Because why not? It’s America’s favorite tradition: betting on the slightly less terrible team.
Key Players & Injuries
- Chicago: Adrian Houser (start) is the lone bright spot in a rotation that’s been more "leak" than "stream." The offense? Miguel Vargas (.223 BA) and Andrew Benintendi (.448 SLG) are the only ones not actively apologizing to the baseball gods. Luis Robert (out) is the team’s version of a missing starter in a game of Jenga.
- Colorado: Antonio Senzatela (start) will try to avoid becoming the Rockies’ 10th pitcher with an ERA above 5.0 this season. Hunter Goodman (16 HRs) is the team’s answer to a power outage, but with Ezequiel Tovar, Kris Bryant, and Ryan Feltner on the IL, the Rockies are basically a AAA team playing in the majors.
Odds & Implied Probabilities
- Chicago White Sox: -124 (55.36% implied probability)
- Colorado Rockies: +208 (32.47% implied probability)
Underdog Win Rate Adjustment
In MLB, underdogs win 41% of the time. The Rockies are the underdog here, so their actual win probability is ~41%, not the 32.47% implied by the odds. That’s a 8.53% gap in favor of the Rockies. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s implied probability (55.36%) is slightly under their expected 59% (100% - 41%), creating a 3.64% gap in their favor.
Expected Value (EV) Calculation
- White Sox:
EV = (59% chance to win * $100 profit) - (41% chance to lose * $124 stake)
= (0.59 * 100) - (0.41 * 124) = 59 - 50.84 = +8.16
- Rockies:
EV = (41% chance to win * $208 profit) - (59% chance to lose * $100 stake)
= (0.41 * 208) - (0.59 * 100) = 85.28 - 59 = +26.28
Wait… that can’t be right. The Rockies have a higher EV? Hold your horses, Denver.
The Twist
While the Rockies’ EV looks tempting on paper, context is key. The Rockies are missing four key players (Tovar, Bryant, Feltner, Criswell), while the White Sox are only missing Robert. Coors Field’s hitter-friendly air might help, but the Rockies’ pitching staff (30th in ERA) is so bad it could make a vending machine break down. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s offense is so anemic they’d struggle to score runs in a rainstorm.
The Verdict
The Rockies’ EV is mathematically higher, but their injury report is a death sentence. The White Sox, despite their flaws, are the safer bet. The Rockies’ "value" is a mirage—like betting on a team that forgot to pack bats.
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML (-124)
- Why? The Rockies’ injuries and pitching woes make them a paper tiger. The White Sox’s 59% actual win rate vs. the Rockies’ 41% underdog rate gives them a 18% edge. Plus, who wants to bet against America’s team on the Fourth of July?
Final Prediction
The Rockies will score 4 runs, the White Sox will score 3, and everyone will go home wondering why they’re watching this game. Final Score: White Sox 3, Rockies 4 (Wait, no—Rockies 5, White Sox 2. Ugh, fine. Rockies win by the slimmest margin, but only because the White Sox forgot to bring their A-game. Final Score: Rockies 6, White Sox 5.)
Take the Rockies if you’re feeling spicy, but don’t say I didn’t warn you when they lose 12-1. 🎆⚾
Created: July 4, 2025, 2:23 p.m. GMT