Prediction: Chicago White Sox VS Colorado Rockies 2025-07-06
The Rockies vs. White Sox Showdown: A Tale of Two Teams in Desperate Need of a Win
July 6, 2025 — Coors Field — 3:10 PM ET
The Setup:
The Colorado Rockies (-142) host the Chicago White Sox (+122) in a game that’s less of a contest and more of a mutual pity party. Both teams are mired in historic futility, but the Rockies’ "favored" status feels like a cruel joke. Let’s break it down with the precision of a broken calculator.
Key Stats & Context:
- Rockies (20-68):
- Worst MLB team in ERA (5.48) and WHIP (1.555).
- Chase Dollander (6.65 ERA, 50 Ks in 65 2/3 IP) starts, a pitcher who’s more likely to throw a no-hitter in a hurricane than keep this team competitive.
- Only 1 win in 3 games as a favorite this season.
- Hunter Goodman (16 HRs) is their lone offensive bright spot, but even he’s probably dreaming of a better team.
- White Sox (29-59):
- Last in MLB in slugging (.343) and 25th in HRs (68).
- Shane Smith (3.86 ERA, 2.11 K/BB ratio) starts, a rare glimmer of hope in a sea of despair.
- 28-51 record, but they’ve won 28 of 87 games as underdogs (32%), slightly below the MLB underdog win rate of 41%.
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline Implied Probabilities:
- Rockies: 142/(142+100) = 58.7%
- White Sox: 100/(122+100) = 45.0%
- Underdog Win Rate (MLB): 41%
- Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Rockies: 33.3% actual win rate (1-3 as favorites) vs. 58.7% implied → -25.4% EV
- White Sox: 41% underdog rate vs. 45% implied → -4% EV
The Verdict:
The Rockies are favored because they play in Denver, not because they deserve it. Their pitching staff is a collective punchline (5.48 ERA, last in MLB), and their starting pitcher, Dollander, is a walking ER. Meanwhile, the White Sox’ Shane Smith is a 3.86 ERA pitcher in a 4.09 ERA team—basically the MVP of mediocrity.
Why Bet the White Sox?
- Pitching Matchup: Smith (3.86 ERA) vs. Dollander (6.65 ERA) = 2.79-run edge for Chicago.
- Rockies’ Struggles: 0-3 in their last 3 games as favorites, including a 12-2 loss to the Padres.
- EV Edge: While the White Sox’ EV (-4%) isn’t stellar, it’s 21% better than the Rockies’ (-25.4%).
Final Prediction:
The White Sox cover the 1.5-run spread (2.36 odds) and win outright at +122. The Rockies’ offense will sputter against Smith, and their pitching will crumble under Dollander’s baton.
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-110)
Expected Value: -4% (Best Available Option)
Sarcasm Alert: If the Rockies win, consider it a miracle. If the White Sox win, call it a conspiracy. Either way, bring popcorn.
Created: July 6, 2025, 1:28 p.m. GMT