Prediction: Chicago White Sox VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-06-22
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Desperate Road Team
June 22, 2025 | Rogers Centre | Toronto Blue Jays (-215) vs. Chicago White Sox (+215)
The Setup:
The Toronto Blue Jays, fresh off a 5-1 win over the White Sox, are favored to close the series with a 68.3% implied probability (based on -215 odds). The White Sox, meanwhile, are a 31.7% underdog despite starting Adrian Houser (2.15 ERA), who out-pitches Chris Bassitt (3.81 ERA). The Blue Jays’ offense (4.3 R/G) is MLB’s 16th-best, while the White Sox (3.5 R/G) are dead last. But let’s not forget: the White Sox are 8-32 on the road this season—literally the kind of team that makes you question why they’re still playing.
Key Stats & Trends:
- Blue Jays as Favorites: 57.1% win rate (vs. 68.3% implied).
- White Sox as Underdogs: 31.6% win rate (vs. 31.7% implied).
- Starter Matchup: Houser (2.15 ERA) vs. Bassitt (3.81 ERA). Houser’s ERA is 1.66 better.
- Offense: Toronto’s Bo Bichette (10 HRs) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.282 BA) vs. Chicago’s Miguel Vargas (10 HRs) and a lineup that scores fewer runs than a toddler’s snack time.
Injuries & News:
No major injuries reported. The White Sox’s lack of a named starter earlier in the week was a red herring—they’ve committed to Houser, who’s been a revelation this season. The Blue Jays’ confidence in Bassitt is… well, let’s just say it’s the confidence of someone who’s seen his ERA balloon to 3.81.
Odds Expected Value (OEV) Breakdown:
1. Blue Jays Implied Probability: 68.3%
- Historical Win Rate as Favorites: 57.1%
- Difference: -11.2% (Negative EV—overpriced)
- White Sox Implied Probability: 31.7%
- MLB Underdog Win Rate (Baseball): 41%
- Difference: +9.3% (Positive EV—undervalued)
- White Sox Specific Underdog Win Rate: 31.6%
- Difference: +0.1% (Almost neutral, but Houser’s 2.15 ERA suggests the line is skewed).
The Verdict:
While the Blue Jays’ 57.1% win rate as favorites is solid, their implied probability is 11.2% too high. Conversely, the White Sox’ 31.7% implied is 9.3% too low compared to the MLB underdog average. Even with their abysmal 31.6% historical underdog win rate, Houser’s stellar 2.15 ERA gives them a fighting chance.
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox (+215)
- Why? The line doesn’t respect Houser’s dominance or the Blue Jays’ leaky 3.81 ERA. The White Sox are a 41% underdog in the grand scheme of baseball, but the books have them at 31.7%. That’s a 9.3% edge—enough to justify backing the underdog in a game where the road team is 8-32.
Spread Play: Chicago +1.5 (-110)
- The White Sox are 31.6% underdogs in the moneyline but only need to keep it within 1.5 runs. With Houser pitching, this is a low-risk, high-reward play.
Final Thought:
The Blue Jays are the better team, but the White Sox are the better bet. Sometimes, the line is just a reminder that even the worst teams can sparkle with the right starter. Go with the underdog—unless you’re a White Sox fan, in which case, good luck.
Created: June 22, 2025, 1:15 p.m. GMT