Prediction: Chris Rodesch VS Pablo Carreno Busta 2025-06-30
Wimbledon 2025: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Chris Rodesch – A Tale of Two Spots
The Setup:
Pablo Carreno Busta, the ATP’s version of a "veteran journeyman," faces off against Chris Rodesch, a name that sounds like it belongs on a medieval knight’s shield. The odds? Rodesch is the favorite at 1.44-1.48 (implied probability: 69-70%), while Carreno Busta, the underdog, sits at 2.65-2.80 (36-37%). Yes, you read that right. The man with the last name of "Busta" is being asked to bust his way out of a hole.
The Numbers Game:
- Rodesch’s Implied Win Probability: ~70% (based on odds).
- Carreno Busta’s Implied Win Probability: ~36%.
- Tennis Underdog Win Rate: 30%.
The EV Breakdown:
Using the underdog win rate (30%) as a benchmark:
- Betting on Rodesch:
EV = (70% * (1/1.44 - 1)) - (30% * 1) ≈ +0.8 cents per $1 bet.
- Betting on Carreno Busta:
Created: June 30, 2025, 6:01 a.m. GMT