Prediction: Christopher Eubanks VS Jesper De Jong 2025-07-01
Wimbledon Round of 128: Jesper De Jong vs. Christopher Eubanks
Date: July 1, 2025 | Time: 12:00 PM (GMT) | Court: Grass (All England Club)
The Setup: A David vs. Goliath Rematch?
Jesper De Jong (No. 106 ATP) and Christopher Eubanks (No. 130 ATP) are two under-the-radar players colliding in a first-round Wimbledon clash. Both are unseeded, but De Jong enters as the slight favorite (-125) despite the absurdity of a 106th-ranked player being anyone’s favorite. Eubanks, the +102 underdog, is here to remind us that tennis is a sport where even the most statistically improbable upsets can happen… if you’re playing on grass and the sun is shining.
The Numbers Game: Odds, Probabilities, and the Ghost of Underdog Rates
Let’s parse the odds:
- De Jong (-125): Implied probability ≈ 55.5% (via American odds).
- Eubanks (+102): Implied probability ≈ 50.5%.
But here’s the twist: historical underdog win rates in tennis are 30%. That means the market is pricing Eubanks at a 49.5% chance to win, but history suggests he should only win 30% of the time. The gap between implied probability (50.5%) and historical rate (30%) is 20.5 percentage points—a gaping chasm of value for De Jong.
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- De Jong’s EV:
(0.555 * 0.77) - (0.445 * 1) = 0.427 - 0.445 = -0.018 (slightly negative, but close).
- Eubanks’ EV:
(0.30 * 1.98) - (0.70 * 1) = 0.594 - 0.70 = -0.106 (clearly negative).
Wait, what? Even with the historical rate, De Jong’s EV is barely negative, while Eubanks’ is a disaster. This suggests the market is overestimating Eubanks’ chances, making De Jong the safer, albeit slightly underpriced, play.
Key Factors: Grass, Grit, and the Ghost of Wimbledon
1. Grass Court Experience:
- De Jong’s career grass record is 12-8, with a 60% win rate in 2025.
- Eubanks is a 55% grass-court player but has struggled in Grand Slams (1-3 in 2024).
- Injuries/Updates:
- No major injuries reported for either player.
- Eubanks has a history of tightrope-walking through matches (avg. 3.2 breaks per match).
- Mental Edge:
- De Jong, a Wimbledon debutant, is playing with house money. His quote: “I’m proud to have made it this far, but now I want to take the next step.”
- Eubanks, meanwhile, is 0-2 in career Grand Slam openers and seems to thrive on chaos… which he might not get today.
The Verdict: Bet on the Dutchman’s Dutch Courage
While the odds make this look like a coin flip, the math tells a different story. De Jong’s implied probability (55.5%) is just 5.5% above the 50/50 line, but his historical win rate on grass (60%) and the 30% underdog rate suggest he’s the better play.
Best Bet: Jesper De Jong (-125)
- Why? The market overvalues Eubanks’ chances (50.5% implied vs. 30% historical). De Jong’s grass pedigree and higher ranking give him a statistical edge.
- EV Edge: De Jong’s EV is -1.8% (meh), but Eubanks’ is -10.6% (terrible). In a vacuum, De Jong is the only logical choice.
Spread Pick (if available): De Jong -1.5 (1.87)
- De Jong’s 60% grass win rate and Eubanks’ 55% suggest a close match, but the -1.5 line gives De Jong a slight edge.
Final Score Prediction
Jesper De Jong in 3 sets (7-5, 6-3, 7-5).
Eubanks will fight valiantly, but De Jong’s grass nous and the ghost of 30% underdog rates will prevail.
Stick with the favorite. Wimbledon is a cruel mistress, but today, she’s smiling on De Jong. 🎾
Created: June 30, 2025, 8:57 p.m. GMT