Prediction: Cleveland Guardians VS Chicago Cubs 2025-07-01
The Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: A Tale of Two Teams (One of Them Is Terrible)
By Your Humble, Overqualified Sportswriter
The Chicago Cubs (-169) host the Cleveland Guardians (40-42) at Wrigley Field on July 1, 2025, in what promises to be a game where the Guardians will attempt to make the Cubs feel bad about their 49-35 record. Spoiler: They won’t.
The Cubs: A Powerhouse in Disguise
The Cubs are hitting like a group of teenagers who just discovered steroids. They’re second in MLB in runs per game (5.4), third in home runs (124), and fourth in slugging percentage. Kyle Tucker (.291, 17 HR, 52 RBI) is a one-man wrecking crew, while Seiya Suzuki (22 HR, 69 RBI) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (85 hits, .299 OBP) are the backup wrecking crew. Their pitching staff? A 3.87 ERA that’s better than your dating profile.
Matthew Boyd (Cubs starter) has a 3.75 ERA this season, which is impressive for a guy who once admitted he’s “just here to make sure the other team doesn’t win by 20.”
The Guardians: A Team That’s Guarding Nothing
Cleveland’s offense is so anemic it makes a vegan diet look hearty. They’re 27th in slugging percentage and 23rd in combined WHIP. Jose Ramirez (13 HR, 38 RBI) is their lone bright spot, but even he’s been outshone by Carlos Santana’s .232 average and 9 HR. Steven Kwan’s .295 average is nice, but he’s been hitting 6 HR in 40 games—about as impressive as a toddler hitting a piñata with a spoon.
Gavin Williams (Guardians starter) has a 4.12 ERA, which is about as reliable as a weather forecast in Texas. The Guardians have lost four straight, including a game where they scored zero runs. Zero! Like, even the mascot was embarrassed.
Odds, EV, and the Art of Not Getting Ripped Off
The Cubs are -169 favorites, which translates to a 63% implied probability (169/(169+100)). The MLB underdog win rate is 41%, so we split the difference (63% - 41% = 22% → 11% adjustment). This gives the Cubs an adjusted EV of 52%, while the Guardians’ EV is 41% + 11% = 52%. Wait, what? Both teams have the same EV? That’s not possible unless this is a game of rock-paper-scissors.
But hold on! The totals line is 8.0 runs (-110). The Cubs have gone over in 44/84 games (52.4%), and the Guardians in 32/80 (40%). Combined, they’ve hit the over in 46.3% of games. The over is priced at 50%, so the EV for the over is -3.7%, and the under is +3.7%. The under is the smarter play here.
The Verdict: Bet the Cubs and the Under
Best Bet: Chicago Cubs ML (-169)
Why? The Cubs’ offense is a nuclear reactor, and the Guardians’ pitching is a kiddie pool. The adjusted EV (52%) is solid, and the Guardians’ 4.02 ERA is about as trustworthy as a politician’s promise.
Secondary Play: Under 8.0 Runs (-110)
While the Cubs’ offense is hot, the Guardians’ lineup is a damp matchstick. The combined over/under is slightly inflated, and the under has a 46.3% chance vs. 50% implied.
Final Thoughts
The Guardians are the MLB version of a “meh” emoji. They’re not bad enough to be funny, just bad enough to make you question why they’re still in the league. The Cubs, meanwhile, are the reason you still believe in the American Dream (or at least in a good first date).
Prediction: Cubs 5, Guardians 2. The Guardians will hit zero HR, and someone will drop a fly ball in the 8th inning. It’s tradition.
Play smart, bet harder, and never trust a team named after a vegetable. 🌱⚾
Created: July 1, 2025, 2:37 p.m. GMT