Prediction: Colorado Rapids VS Los Angeles FC 2025-07-09
MLS Showdown: Colorado Rapids vs. Los Angeles FC – A Tale of Overrated Glory and Underdog Grit
July 10, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET
The Setup:
The Colorado Rapids, fresh off a 3-1 drubbing at the hands of Sporting Kansas City (a team that somehow still exists), face off against the Los Angeles FC, a squad that’s been coasting on the coattails of their Galaxy cousins’ 3-0 thrashing of Vancouver. Let’s call this the “Battle of the Uninspiring.”
Key Stats & Context:
- Colorado’s Recent Form: Colorado’s last win came in a 3-1 upset over Kansas City, but they’ve been leaky defensively, averaging 1.5 goals conceded per game. Their attack? A mix of hope and Rafael Navarro’s 89th-minute heroics.
- LA FC’s Momentum: While not mentioned in recent results, LA FC’s position in the Western Conference standings is… mysterious. They’re presumably better than FC Dallas, who are currently the MLS’s version of a cursed sitcom.
- Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Colorado (+7.3) vs. LA FC (-1.37).
- Implied Probability: Colorado (13.7%) vs. LA FC (73%).
- Underdog Win Rate (Soccer): 41%.
The Math of Madness:
Let’s crunch the numbers like we’re calculating how many tacos you can eat before the game.
- Colorado’s EV (Expected Value):
- Implied probability: 13.7%.
- Adjusted for underdog win rate: (13.7% + 41%) / 2 = 27.35%.
- Payout: 7.3 (decimal odds).
- EV: (27.35% * 6.3) - (72.65% * 1) = +99.6% (for a $100 bet).
- LA FC’s EV:
- Implied probability: 73%.
- Adjusted for favorites: Assuming 59% win rate (100% - 41%), EV = (59% * 0.37) - (41% * 1) = -19.17%.
Injuries & Key Players:
- Colorado: No major injuries reported, but George Mihajlovic’s penalty miss against Kansas City still haunts the team like a ghost in a Colorado blizzard.
- LA FC: Presumably healthy, but their recent form is as clear as a cloudy IPA.
The Verdict:
While LA FC’s odds scream “bet on us, we’re obviously the choice,” their 73% implied probability ignores the pesky 41% underdog win rate in soccer. Colorado, the 13.7% shot, becomes a 27.35% proposition when adjusted for historical trends. With positive EV of +99.6%, the Rapids are the smart play here.
Final Prediction:
Colorado will pull off the upset, much like they did against Kansas City, by scoring a goal in the 89th minute or later. Bet Colorado (+7.3) – because nothing says “MLS drama” like a last-minute winner from Navarro or a defensive collapse by LA FC.
And remember, folks: if you bet on LA FC, you’re not a fan—you’re just paying for the privilege of watching them coast on their reputation. 🏟️💥
Created: July 5, 2025, 11:26 p.m. GMT