Prediction: Colorado Rockies VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-07-11
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: A Statistical Slapdown
July 11, 2025 | Great American Ball Park | Reds -206, Rockies +171
Key Statistics & Trends
- Reds (47-46):
- 11th in MLB in offense (4.6 R/G), 16th in slugging (.395).
- 69% implied probability (from -206 odds).
- 19-20 as favorites this season.
- Rockies (21-72):
- 27th in offense (3.5 R/G), worst pitching staff (5.66 ERA).
- 35.2% implied probability (from +171 odds).
- 20-69 as underdogs this season (22.5% win rate).
- Head-to-Head: Reds dominate Rockies historically, but this is a 21-game losing streak Rockies team vs. a .500 Reds squad.
Injuries & Updates
No major injuries reported for either team. Key players:
- Reds: Chase Burns (RHP, 4.20 ERA) vs. Rockies’ German Marquez (RHP, 5.10 ERA). Burns’ 9.3 K/9 vs. Marquez’s 6.8 K/9.
- Rockies’ offense is MLB’s worst (.228 AVG, 27th in OBP). Reds’ defense (4.00 ERA) should feast on weak contact.
Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
1. Implied Probabilities (from Moneyline):
- Reds (-206): 206 / (206 + 100) = 67.3%
- Rockies (+171): 100 / (171 + 100) = 36.9%
2. Adjusted Probabilities (Using Baseball’s 41% Underdog Win Rate):
- Reds (Favorite):
- Favorite win rate = 100% - 41% = 59%
- Adjusted = (67.3% + 59%) / 2 = 63.2%
- Rockies (Underdog):
- Adjusted = (36.9% + 41%) / 2 = 38.9%
3. Expected Value (EV) Comparison:
- Reds: 63.2% adjusted vs. 67.3% implied → Negative EV.
- Rockies: 38.9% adjusted vs. 36.9% implied → Positive EV.
Betting Strategy & Recommendation
The Verdict:
While the Reds are a clear statistical favorite (63.2% adjusted win probability), their implied probability (67.3%) overvalues their chances. Conversely, the Rockies, despite their 21-72 record, are undervalued by the market (36.9% implied vs. 38.9% adjusted).
Why Bet the Rockies?
- The Rockies’ 5.66 ERA is the worst in MLB—a gift for the Reds’ 4.6 R/G offense.
- Baseball’s 41% underdog win rate outperforms the Rockies’ 22.5% historical underdog performance, suggesting value in the dog.
- The total is set at 9.5 runs. With both teams’ offenses ranked outside the top 15, under 9.5 is a strong play (implied 50% vs. 52% historical under rate for low-scoring games).
Final Call:
- Bet the Rockies (+171) for positive EV.
- Bet the Under (9.5 runs) at -110 for a 50/50 coin flip with a 52% historical edge.
In Summary:
The Reds are a solid bet to win, but the Rockies are undervalued in this mismatch. In baseball, even the worst teams occasionally win 41% of games—especially when the opposition’s pitching is as leaky as a Colorado snowmelt.
“The Rockies are the Vegas of baseball—everyone loses money, but someone always wins.” 🏕️⚾
Created: July 11, 2025, 4:47 a.m. GMT