Prediction: Colorado Rockies VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-06-29
Witty and Tongue-in-Cheek Analysis: Brewers vs. Rockies – A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Sarcasm)
The Milwaukee Brewers (-248) are here to remind us that not all teams are created equal. With a 46-36 record, 4.7 runs per game, and a 3.86 ERA, they’re the MLB version of a trust fund baby: polished, reliable, and slightly smug. The Colorado Rockies (+201), meanwhile, are the “I’ll just wing it” crew of baseball. At 18-64, they’re the only team in the majors that makes the word “struggling” sound like an understatement. Their 5.56 ERA and 1.559 WHIP are so bad, even the Rockies’ mascot probably files for disability.
Key Players & Starters
- Chad Patrick (Brewers): A pitcher with a 3.20 ERA this season, he’s the anti-German Marquez (Rockies, 5.80 ERA). If Patrick stays in the game past the 5th inning, this becomes a coroner’s report.
- German Marquez: The Rockies’ starter is like a broken metronome—unreliable, inconsistent, and here to make you question life choices.
- Offense: The Brewers’ lineup (Chourio, Yelich, Frelick) is a buffet of contact hitters. The Rockies’ offense (Goodman, Beck, McMahon) is more like a diet of stale crackers and regret.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Unless They’re Rockies Stats)
- Brewers are 27-13 in games they’re favored this season. That’s the MLB equivalent of a “layup” in basketball.
- Rockies have the worst ERA in the majors and a team WHIP (1.559) so high, it could double as a ladder.
- Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%. The Rockies’ implied probability from the odds is just 28.9% (100 / (201 + 100)). That’s a 12.1% gap between the bookmakers’ math and historical underdog luck. Translation: The Rockies are undervalued.
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
- Brewers’ Implied Probability: 70.7% (248 / (248 + 100)).
- Rockies’ Implied Probability: 28.9%.
- Split the Difference: 70.7% vs. 41% underdog rate = Brewers are overvalued. Rockies’ 28.9% vs. 41% = Rockies are undervalued.
Calculating Expected Value (EV):
- Rockies: (41% * 201) - (59% * 100) = +23.41. Positive EV.
- Brewers: (59% * 100) - (41% * 248) = -42.68. Negative EV.
The Verdict
While the Brewers are the obvious pick to win (they’re the Yankees of Milwaukee, but with fewer pinstripes and more cheese), the Colorado Rockies (+201) offer the best value. The Rockies’ 41% underdog win rate vs. their 28.9% implied probability means you’re getting a discount on chaos.
Best Bet: Colorado Rockies (+201)
- Why? The Rockies’ pitching is so bad, even a historically awful team like the 2025 Rockies could find a way to win 41% of the time. The Brewers’ -248 line is steep for a team that’s already a 70% favorite—overkill in a sport where upsets are common.
Spread & Total:
- Spread (-1.5): Skip it. The Brewers are too strong to cover a mere 1.5-run line.
- Total (8.5): Under is a safer play. The Rockies’ offense is a sieve, and the Brewers’ pitching will keep this low.
Final Thought:
This is the MLB version of a “buy the dip” moment for the Rockies. They’re not going to win, but their odds are so generous that a 41% chance to win +201 is a math problem you can’t ignore. Bet the Rockies for the value, and tip your cap to the Brewers for being the most predictable team since a snowstorm in June.
Expected Value Winner: Rockies (+201).
Most Likely Outcome: Brewers win, but Rockies’ line gives you a chance to profit if they pull off the upset.
“Baseball is 90% luck and 10% skill. The Rockies have neither.” – Anonymous
Created: June 29, 2025, 3:11 p.m. GMT