Prediction: Colorado Rockies VS San Diego Padres 2025-09-12

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: A Tale of Two Teams (and One Very Confused Bookmaker)

Let’s cut to the chase: The Colorado Rockies are the favorites in this matchup. According to the odds, they’re being priced as if they’re the Harlem Globetrotters and the San Diego Padres are a group of penguins trying to play baseball in a blizzard. But hold on—this isn’t a typo. The Rockies, who entered the previous series with a 40-106 record (yes, 40 wins in 146 games), are being given a 72-88% implied chance to win this game depending on the bookmaker. Meanwhile, the Padres, who just shut out the Rockies 2-0 and are fighting for a playoff spot, are being offered at +400 to +500 odds, which implies they’re only a 20-25% chance. If this were a horse race, the Rockies would be the “Pick a Winner” scratch-off ticket and the Padres would be the “This is a Robot” meme.

Parsing the Odds: Why Is This Happening?
Let’s dissect the numbers. The Rockies’ starting pitcher, Tanner Gordon, has a 6.60 ERA this season—meaning he’s allowing 6.6 runs per nine innings. That’s the kind of ERA that makes you question if he’s pitching or just… spraying the ball into the stratosphere. Opposing him is Padres’ lefty JP Sears, who’s slightly less catastrophic at 5.01 ERA. On paper, Sears is the better starter, but the Rockies’ lineup? It’s so anemic that even Gordon’s ERA might not be enough to score runs. In their last five games, the Rockies have mustered a total of 8 runs. That’s less than what most Little League teams score in a single inning.

The Padres, meanwhile, have a 2.5-run line to cover, which is absurd given they won their last game 2-0. If they’re only expected to win by 2.5 runs here, it implies they’ll unleash a nuclear attack on the Rockies’ offense. And yet, the Padres’ offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire—they scored 2 runs in that shutout victory. But hey, defense! The Padres’ pitching staff has a 3.80 team ERA, while the Rockies’ is a comically bad 6.20. If this game were a boxing match, the Rockies would be the guy who forgot to show up.

News Digest: Injuries and Desperation
The Rockies have no major injuries to report, which is impressive given their recent five-game losing streak. Their only silver lining is that they’re playing for pride—or what passes for it in a team that’s already mathematically eliminated. The Padres, on the other hand, are healthy and hungry. Jackson Merrill’s 11th homer in the last game was the kind of clutch hit that makes you wonder if he’s secretly a wizard who just forgot to cast a spell. The Padres are also riding a four-game lead in the wild-card race, which means they’re desperate enough to play like a team that cares.

The Humor: Absurdity as a Sport
The Rockies being favorites here is like betting on a sloth to win a sprint—unless the sprint is held in a molasses factory. Their “strategy” is basically: “Don’t strike out, and hope the Padres make a mistake.” The Padres, meanwhile, could win this game by just not being the Rockies. Their rally chant, “SE ACABAAA EL PAAARTIIIDOOO!!!” (which translates to “THIS GAME IS OVER, RIGHT?!”) is already doing the heavy lifting.

Prediction: The Padres Will Win, and the Bookmakers Will Cry
Despite the baffling odds, logic—and basic arithmetic—dictates that the Padres will win. Gordon’s ERA is so high it could qualify as a rollercoaster, and the Rockies’ offense is so weak it can’t even power a toaster. The Padres’ pitching staff, though not perfect, is still significantly better, and their bats will eventually wake up from their 2-run slumber.

Final Verdict:
Bet on the Padres to cover the 2.5-run spread and win outright. The Rockies’ “favorite” status is a statistical anomaly, likely caused by a bookmaker accidentally hitting the “invert odds” button while half-asleep. The Padres are 79-67 for a reason—they’re a playoff team playing against a team that exists mainly to sell nachos. Unless Gordon suddenly becomes a Cy Young contender and the Rockies invent the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, this game is a foregone conclusion.

“The Rockies’ chances of winning? About the same as my chances of understanding quantum physics. Stick with the Padres, folks. And maybe check the odds again—someone’s math is clearly off.”

Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 3:12 a.m. GMT

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