Prediction: Colorado Rockies VS Washington Nationals 2025-06-16
Folks, we've got a real barnburner of a matchup for you tonight - the Colorado Rockies, who can't seem to catch a break, are heading to Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals, who are trying to claw their way back to .500.
The Nationals are favored to win at -190, which implies a win probability of about 65.6%. The Rockies, on the other hand, are massive underdogs at +190, implying a win probability of about 34.4%.
Now, let's talk about some key stats. The Nationals have struggled this season, ranking 22nd in home runs and 27th in team ERA. Their pitchers have a 24th-ranked WHIP in MLB. The Rockies, well, they've been the laughing stock of the league, with a 30th-ranked ERA and the worst WHIP in the majors.
But here's the thing: the Nationals have struggled as favorites, winning only 22.2% of games they were listed as the moneyline favorite. That's right, folks, they're not exactly a sure thing.
The Rockies, on the other hand, have won 13 games as underdogs this season, which is about 19.1% of the time. Not great, but not terrible either.
Now, let's look at some key player updates. The Nationals have several injuries, including Dylan Crews, Paul DeJong, Orlando Ribalta, Andrew Chafin, Derek Law, Josiah Gray, DJ Herz, and Mason Thompson. The Rockies also have several injuries, including Ezequiel Tovar, Tanner Gordon, Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, Kris Bryant, and Jeff Criswell.
In terms of the starting pitchers, Jake Irvin is set to go for the Nationals, while Carson Palmquist will make his first start of the season for the Rockies.
So, what's the best bet here? Well, I'm going to calculate the expected value of each bet using the odds provided.
For the moneyline, the expected value of betting on the Nationals is:
(-190) * (0.656) + (100) * (0.344) = -124.84 + 34.4 = -90.44
For the Rockies, the expected value is:
(190) * (0.344) + (-100) * (0.656) = 65.36 - 65.6 = -0.24
The Nationals have a higher expected value, but it's not a great bet.
For the spread, the expected value of betting on the Nationals -1.5 is:
(-110) * (0.5) + (110) * (0.5) = -55 + 55 = 0
For the Rockies +1.5, the expected value is:
(-110) * (0.5) + (110) * (0.5) = -55 + 55 = 0
It's a push.
For the totals, the expected value of betting on the Over 9.0 is:
(-110) * (0.5) + (110) * (0.5) = -55 + 55 = 0
For the Under 9.0, the expected value is:
(-110) * (0.5) + (110) * (0.5) = -55 + 55 = 0
It's a push.
However, if I had to pick a best bet, I'd say the Nationals -1.5 at -110 has an implied probability of 52.38%, which is higher than their actual win probability.
My best bet: Nationals -1.5 at -110.
Odds Expected Value Nationals win: 64.7%
Odds Expected Value Rockies win: 35.3%
The final prediction: Nationals 6, Rockies 3.
The Washington Nationals will likely take this one, but it won't be a cakewalk.
Created: June 16, 2025, 4:55 a.m. GMT