Prediction: Colorado St Rams VS Utah State Aggies 2025-12-20
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams: A Three-Point Showdown with a Side of Drama
Let’s break down this Mountain West clash with the precision of a stat-geeked-out stand-up comedian.
Parsing the Odds: A Numbers Game
Utah State (-7.5) is the favorite, per the lines, while Colorado State (+7.5) offers a glimmer of hope for underdog enthusiasts. The over/under sits at 148.5 points, which feels about as realistic as a snowstorm in the Sahara. Here’s why:
- Colorado State’s 3-Point Juggernaut: The Rams lead college hoops in made threes (11.8 per game) and shoot 44.7% from deep. For context, Utah State allows 8.6 threes per game—just 0.1 fewer than Colorado State averages. If the Rams hit even half their bombs, the Aggies’ defense might start looking for a “How to Stop a Rocket Launcher” manual.
- Utah State’s Home-Court Magic: The Aggies are 4-0 at home this season and have stifled opponents to 41.2% shooting. Their defense allows a meager 53.0 points per game—worse than a locked door at a bank. But here’s the rub: Colorado State’s offense averages 69.8 points, which is like bringing a flamethrower to a pillow fight.
Implied Probabilities:
- Utah State’s -7.5 line implies a ~64% chance to cover (using decimal odds of -110).
- Colorado State’s +7.5 line implies a ~36% chance to cover.
- The over/under of 148.5 suggests bookmakers expect a combined 148.5 points, but with Colorado State’s defense and Utah State’s modest offense, the under feels like a safer bet than a parachute with a 10% defect rate.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Trends, and Michael Collins’ 20-Point Outburst
- Utah State’s Secret Weapon: Michael Collins Jr. is on fire, dropping 20 points in a recent win over Illinois State. He’s shooting 57% from the field—better than my ability to parallel park. The Aggies also boast a 11.9-point scoring edge over Colorado State’s defense (64.9 to 53.0). But can they handle the Rams’ 3-point assault?
- Colorado State’s X-Factor: Josh Pascarelli is a 52.7% shooter from deep, averaging 3.5 threes per game. If he’s hot, the Rams could turn this into a Hail Mary party. Their 1-0 road record? A statistical fluke, or the start of a Cinderella story?
Humorous Spin: Because Sports Needs Laughs
- Utah State’s Defense: Let’s call it “porous but polite.” They allow 66.5 points per game—enough to make a librarian blush. If they face Colorado State’s 3-pointers, it’ll be like trying to hold back a tsunami with a colander.
- Colorado State’s Offense: Their 44.7% three-point shooting is so reliable, they could probably score from half-court during a power outage.
- The Spread: -7.5 for Utah State is basically saying, “We think you’ll win, but not by too much, unless you suddenly develop a third arm for blocked shots.”
Prediction: The Verdict from the Balcony of Logic
While Utah State’s home-court edge and defensive grit make them the favorite, Colorado State’s 3-point prowess and stingy defense could keep this game tighter than a noose around a chicken’s neck.
Final Verdict:
Pick the Under (148.5)—both teams’ defensive numbers suggest a lower-scoring affair. If the Rams hit 9-10 threes, they’ll stay in it, but Utah State’s balanced attack (Aaliyah Gayles’ 14.8 PPG, 1.7 steals) should seal the deal.
Spread Pick: Colorado State +7.5—yes, it’s a long shot, but if Pascarelli drops 25 on Utah State’s “porous but polite” D, the Rams could shock the Aggies.
In the end, Utah State wins by 6 (68-62), covering the spread by a hair. But if you bet the under? Congrats, you’ve outsmarted the bookmakers. Again.
“Remember, folks: betting is a numbers game, but sometimes the numbers just want to dance.” 🏀✨
Created: Dec. 20, 2025, 9:52 a.m. GMT