Prediction: Connecticut Sun VS Golden State Valkyries 2025-06-22
Ah, the Connecticut Sun versus the Golden State Valkyries—a matchup that promises to be as lopsided as a seesaw with an elephant on one end. The Sun, currently sitting at the bottom of the WNBA standings with a 2-11 record, are like that friend who always promises to show up on time but never does. Meanwhile, the Valkyries, with a respectable 6-6 record, are riding high on a four-out-of-five winning streak.
The Sun's Marina Mabrey is questionable due to a knee injury, which is akin to removing the only working bulb from a dimly lit room. Mabrey has been averaging a career-high 15.2 points per game, and her absence could be the final nail in the coffin for the Sun's already dim playoff hopes. Rookie Aneesah Morrow has been a bright spot, but let's be honest, she can't carry the entire team on her rookie shoulders.
On the other side, the Valkyries have Laeticia Amihere, whose defense has been as impenetrable as a fortress. Her recent performance against the Indiana Fever, where she held Caitlin Clark to just 11 points, is a testament to her "Kobe mentality face"—whatever that means.
Now, let's talk numbers. The Valkyries are favored with odds of 1.2, while the Sun are the underdogs at 4.6. The spread is set at 9.5 points in favor of the Valkyries. Given the Sun's current form and Mabrey's uncertain status, betting on the Valkyries to cover the spread seems like a safe bet. But where's the fun in that?
Let's calculate the expected value for the underdog bet on the Sun. With odds of 4.6, the implied probability is approximately 21.74%. The historical underdog win rate in the WNBA is around 32%. Splitting the difference gives us an adjusted probability of 26.87%. The expected value (EV) for a $1 bet on the Sun is:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Payout) - (Probability of Losing * Bet Amount)
EV = (0.2687 * 4.6) - (0.7313 * 1)
EV = 1.23602 - 0.7313
EV = 0.50472
With a positive expected value, a cheeky bet on the Sun might just be worth the risk, especially if you're feeling lucky or just enjoy living on the edge. But remember, this is more of a "why not?" bet than a "smart money" move.
In conclusion, while the Valkyries are the logical choice, a small wager on the Sun could provide a nice return if they manage to pull off an upset. Just don't bet the farm on it—unless, of course, you have a backup farm.
Created: June 22, 2025, 11:27 a.m. GMT