Prediction: Connecticut Sun VS Seattle Storm 2025-07-11
WNBA Showdown: Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun
July 12, 2025 | KeyArena, Seattle | 10:00 PM ET
1. Key Statistics & Trends
- Connecticut Sun’s Resurgence: The Sun ended a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak with a 93-83 win over the Storm on July 11, fueled by Tina Charles’ 29-point, 11-rebound explosion. They outscored Seattle 27-9 in the 4th quarter, proving they can hang with the Storm despite being the WNBA’s worst team in defensive efficiency (-11.2 net rating).
- Seattle Storm’s Offense vs. Sun’s Defense: The Storm average 98.3 PPG (3rd in WNBA), while the Sun allow 94.1 PPG (1st in points allowed). However, the Sun’s defense is porous against elite scorers like Nneka Ogwumike (8.0 RPG, 16.5 PPG), who has grabbed 7+ rebounds in 4 straight games.
- Head-to-Head: The Sun have won 3 of their last 5 meetings against the Storm, including the recent 93-83 upset. Seattle’s 14-point lead in that game was erased due to a 9-of-14 3-point performance by Connecticut.
2. Injuries & Updates
- Connecticut Sun:
- Saniya Rivers (knee) returned in the July 11 win, contributing 11 points, 7 assists.
- Marina Mabrey (out) remains sidelined but has been a vocal cheerleader for Rivers’ recovery.
- Seattle Storm:
- Signed Tiffany Mitchell (10th-year guard) as a free agent, adding depth to their backcourt. Mitchell’s arrival could boost Seattle’s 3-point shooting (34.2% team 3PT%) but may not offset their recent defensive lapses.
3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
#### Moneyline
- Seattle Storm (-950): Implied probability = 95.2% (1 / 1.05).
- Connecticut Sun (+900): Implied probability = 9.1% (1 / 10.0).
Adjusting for WNBA Underdog Win Rates (32%):
- Storm’s adjusted probability = (95.2% + 68%) / 2 = 81.6% (favorite win rate = 100% - 32% = 68%).
- Sun’s adjusted probability = (9.1% + 32%) / 2 = 20.6%.
Verdict: The Storm’s 81.6% adjusted probability vs. 95.2% implied probability = -13.6% EV. Avoid the moneyline.
Spread
- Seattle Storm -18 (-110): Implied probability = 52.4% (110 / (110 + 100)).
- Connecticut Sun +18 (-110): Implied probability = 47.6%.
Adjusting for Context:
- The Sun’s 20.6% adjusted win rate vs. 47.6% implied probability = +27% EV.
- The Storm’s 81.6% adjusted win rate vs. 52.4% implied probability = +29.2% EV.
Verdict: The Storm’s +29.2% EV on the spread is tempting, but their 14-point lead in the July 11 game was erased by Connecticut’s 3-point barrage. The Sun’s +18 spread is too generous for a team that’s still the league’s worst defensively.
Total (156.5 Points)
- Over 156.5 (-110): Implied probability = 52.4%.
- Under 156.5 (-110): Implied probability = 47.6%.
Historical Context:
- The July 11 game totaled 176 points (19.5 over the current line).
- The Storm average 98.3 PPG; the Sun average 86.5 PPG. Combined, they average 184.8 PPG.
EV Calculation:
- Adjusted probability of Over = (52.4% + 60%) / 2 = 56.2% (using NBA’s 60% OVER rate as proxy).
- EV = (56.2% * 100) - (43.8% * 110) = +11.4%.
Verdict: The OVER 156.5 is a +11.4% EV play. The line is 19.5 points too low given the teams’ scoring tendencies.
Final Recommendations
1. BET: OVER 156.5 (-110)
- Why: The Sun’s defense is the WNBA’s worst, and the Storm’s offense is elite. The total is 19.5 points below the combined score of their last meeting. Even if the Storm tighten up defensively, Nneka Ogwumike’s 8.0 RPG and Tina Charles’ 11 rebound effort in the July 11 game suggest a high-scoring rebound battle.
- Prop Alert: Nneka Ogwumike OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-110). She’s grabbed 7+ boards in 4 straight games and faces a Sun team that allows the 2nd-most rebounds per game (42.1 RPG).
- Avoid the Moneyline/Spread
- The Storm’s 95.2% implied probability is absurd. The Sun’s 20.6% adjusted win rate vs. the Storm’s 81.6% adjusted win rate suggests the line is skewed by recent results.
TL;DR: Bet the OVER 156.5 and Nneka Ogwumike’s rebounds. The Sun’s defense and Storm’s offense will make this a track meet, and the total is laughably low. The moneyline? Save your cash for Saniya Rivers’ next Shamar dance tutorial.
Created: July 11, 2025, 2:32 p.m. GMT