Prediction: Corentin Moutet VS Francisco Comesana 2025-07-01
Wimbledon 2025: Corentin Moutet vs. Francisco Comesana – A Data-Driven Bet with a Side of Sarcasm
Matchup Context:
Corentin Moutet (83rd ATP) faces Francisco Comesana (65th) in a first-round clash at Wimbledon. Moutet, the higher-ranked player, is favored across all bookmakers, with odds ranging from 1.42 to 1.45 (implied probability ~66-70%). Comesana, the underdog, has odds between 2.7 and 2.84 (~35-37% implied). The underdog win rate in tennis is 30%, so let’s split the difference between the calculated probabilities and historical trends to find the best bet.
The Math: Expected Value & Split-the-Difference Logic
1. Implied Probabilities (Adjusted for Vigorish):
- Moutet: ~66.4% (avg of 1.42–1.45 odds).
- Comesana: ~33.6% (avg of 2.7–2.84 odds).
- Split-the-Difference Adjustments:
- Moutet (Favorite): Average of implied (66.4%) and historical favorite rate (70%) → 68.2%.
- Comesana (Underdog): Average of implied (33.6%) and historical underdog rate (30%) → 31.8%.
- Expected Value (EV) Calculations:
- Moutet: (68.2% * 1.42) - (31.8% * 1) = 0.969 - 0.318 = +0.651 (positive EV).
- Comesana: (31.8% * 2.8) - (68.2% * 1) = 0.890 - 0.682 = +0.208 (positive EV, but smaller).
Verdict: Moutet’s EV is 3x higher than Comesana’s. Even though both have positive EV (thanks to the vigorish), Moutet is the smarter play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rankings & Form: Moutet is 18 spots higher in the ATP rankings. Higher-ranked players often have better grass-court experience, which matters at Wimbledon.
- Injuries/Updates: No significant injuries reported for either player.
- Head-to-Head: No prior meetings, but Moutet’s higher ranking and better grass-court pedigree (he’s won titles on the surface) give him an edge.
Best Bet: Corentin Moutet (-3.5 sets) @ 1.82–1.87 (Spread Market)
Why?
- The spread (-3.5 sets) is priced to reflect Moutet’s dominance. At 1.82–1.87, the EV is (68.2% * 1.82) - (31.8% * 1) = +0.79.
- Moutet’s 68.2% adjusted win probability makes the spread a high-confidence play.
Underdog Caveat: If you must take the underdog, Comesana’s 31.8% chance (~30% underdog rate) isn’t terrible, but his 2.7–2.84 odds are only slightly better than the historical average. Still, Moutet is the safer, more profitable pick.
Final Prediction
Moutet in 3 sets (68.2% chance).
Comesana’s Hope: A 31.8% shot to pull off the upset and make us all feel like we’ve seen a miracle.
Witty Take:
> “Moutet is the Swiss Army knife of tennis; Comesana is a nice cheese knife. Don’t try to slice through Wimbledon with a cheese knife.”
Bet: Corentin Moutet to win the match @ 1.42–1.45 (H2H) or -3.5 sets @ 1.82–1.87 (Spread).
Expected Value: +0.651 (H2H) / +0.79 (Spread). Profit, not poetry. 🎾
Created: June 30, 2025, 9:18 p.m. GMT