Prediction: Coritiba VS Clube de Regatas Brasil 2025-07-10
CRB vs Coritiba: A Tale of Two Teams, One Chaotic SĂ©rie B Showdown
By Your Friendly Neighborhood Handicapper with a Calculator and a Sense of Sarcasm
The Setup
Coritiba (1st, 38 pts) and CRB (12th, 22 pts) clash in a Série B thriller where the league’s top dog faces a mid-table underdog. Coritiba, the reigning leader, is missing three suspended stars (Lucas Figueiredo, João Vitor, and João Paulo) and one injured midfielder (Léo Cittadini). CRB, meanwhile, has just one injury concern (Douglas Baggio) and a coach, Eduardo Barroca, who’s begging for fan support like a man asking for a second cup of coffee at 3 a.m.
The Numbers Game
Let’s crunch the odds like a spreadsheet on Red Bull.
- CRB (Home): Odds range from 2.15 to 2.25 (implied probability: ~44-47%).
- Coritiba (Away): Odds range from 3.3 to 3.7 (implied probability: ~27-31%).
- Draw: Odds from 2.9 to 3.1 (implied probability: ~32-34%).
League Context: Série B is a goal-fest, with 19-goal teams like Athletico-PR and Avaà dominating the scoring charts. Amazonas, the league’s leaky ship, has conceded 20 goals—enough to sink the Titanic.
The EV Calculus
Because nothing says “fun” like splitting differences and pretending we’re actuaries.
- CRB (Favorite):
- Implied probability: ~45%
- Adjusted for favorite win rate (59%): (45% + 59%) / 2 = 52%
- EV: (52% * 2.2) - 1 = +14.9%
- Coritiba (Underdog):
- Implied probability: ~30%
- Adjusted for underdog win rate (41%): (30% + 41%) / 2 = 36%
- EV: (36% * 3.3) - 1 = +19.8%
- Draw:
- Implied probability: ~33%
- EV: (33% * 2.95) - 1 = -4.9%
The Verdict
Coritiba (+3.3) is the best bet.
- Yes, they’re the underdog. Yes, they’re missing three starters. But their EV is 20%—a staggering 5% higher than CRB’s.
- CRB’s “favorite” status is a mirage. At 52% implied win probability, they’re just barely holding onto the 59% league average for favorites. Meanwhile, Coritiba’s 36% adjusted win rate is 6% above their implied odds.
Why?
- Coritiba’s injuries are catastrophic, but Série B is a grind. Teams like Avaà and Goiás are thriving with high-press systems, and Coritiba’s attack (15th in goals scored) isn’t reliant on their suspended stars.
- CRB’s squad is healthier, but their recent slump (2W in last 5) and Barroca’s “fan support” plea scream desperation.
The Witty Wrap-Up
This is a match for the ages—or at least a very good Tuesday night on Disney+. CRB has the home crowd and a full squad, but Coritiba’s EV is so juicy it could fund a whole season of Handball Highlights Weekly.
Final Pick: Coritiba (+3.3) at LowVig.ag (1.93 for +0.25 spread if you’re feeling spicy).
And remember, folks: in Série B, the only thing more unpredictable than the standings is the weather. Take cover. 🌩️⚽
Created: July 10, 2025, 6:04 a.m. GMT